银行专题报告：信贷高频追踪系列十八-信贷总量偏弱，居民中长贷亮眼

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [11]. Core Insights - The report highlights a weak overall credit volume, with notable growth in residential medium to long-term loans, reflecting a marginal recovery in second-hand housing sales [5][6]. - The total social financing (TSF) increased by 2.34 trillion yuan in November, a year-on-year decrease of 112.4 billion yuan, primarily driven by government bond issuance [5][19]. - The report anticipates a decline in the growth rate of RMB loans to approximately 7.0% by 2025, with a slight year-on-year decrease expected [8][25]. Summary by Sections Credit Volume Analysis - RMB loans increased by 580 billion yuan in November, a year-on-year decrease of 510 billion yuan, with a month-end balance growth rate of 7.7% [6]. - Residential loans saw an increase of 270 billion yuan, with medium to long-term loans rising by 300 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 669 billion yuan [6]. - Corporate loans were a major drag on credit, with new corporate loans at 250 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year decrease of 572.1 billion yuan [7]. Social Financing and Government Bonds - The report indicates that social financing continues to rely on government bonds, which saw an increase of 1.31 trillion yuan in November, a year-on-year increase of 158.9 billion yuan [5][19]. - The issuance of special bonds for hidden debt replacement is accelerating, with expectations for continued support from government bonds in December [5]. Future Projections - The report projects that the growth rate of RMB loans will decline to 7.0% by 2025, with a slight year-on-year decrease anticipated [8][25]. - It is expected that the credit allocation will continue to differentiate among banks, with larger banks gaining market share due to their resource advantages [9].