化工行业2025年度投资策略：周期曙光将至，成长乘势而上

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the chemical industry, suggesting a positive outlook for 2025 [1] Core Views - The chemical industry is at the bottom of the cycle, with policy support expected to drive demand recovery in 2025 [1] - Traditional chemical products are expected to see valuation recovery, with leading companies benefiting from their scale and cost advantages [1] - New materials, particularly in areas like photoresists and OLED materials, are seen as key growth opportunities due to their high technological barriers and low domestic penetration rates [1] Traditional Chemical Products - Demand is expected to improve due to policy support in China and a shift towards looser monetary policy in the US [13][17] - Supply-side constraints, including slower new capacity additions and potential policy-driven reforms, could lead to improved profitability [32][47] - Leading companies like Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Huafon Chemical are recommended due to their strong market positions and cost advantages [1][74] New Materials - Photoresists are highlighted as a critical area for domestic substitution, with companies like Tongcheng New Materials recommended [1] - OLED materials and equipment are expected to benefit from the rapid penetration of mid-sized OLED displays and the construction of high-generation production lines [1] - Lubricant additives are another area of focus, with domestic companies like Ruifeng New Materials and Lionbridge expected to reshape the global supply landscape [1] Key Companies - Wanhua Chemical: A global leader in MDI production with strong R&D capabilities and a diversified product portfolio [103] - Hualu Hengsheng: A cost leader in modern coal chemical industry with ongoing capacity expansions and technological upgrades [104] - Huafon Chemical: A leading player in the polyurethane industry with significant scale and cost advantages [105] - Yangnong Chemical: A top pesticide manufacturer with strong R&D and production capabilities [106] - Satellite Chemical: A leader in the acrylic acid and light hydrocarbon-to-olefin industries with a highly integrated supply chain [106] - Baofeng Energy: A benchmark in the coal chemical industry with ongoing expansions in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang [107] - Lomon Billions: A global leader in titanium products with a fully integrated supply chain from mining to high-end products [107] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The polyester filament industry is expected to see improved profitability due to slowing supply growth and steady demand [110][111] - The refrigerant industry is benefiting from strict supply quotas and strong demand from the home appliance and automotive sectors [1] - High-energy-consuming and polluting sub-sectors like phosphorus, silicon, and chlor-alkali chemicals may see supply-side reforms [1]