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电力设备行业2025年度投资策略:需求共振,增势持续
民生证券·2024-12-16 06:35

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the electric power equipment industry, highlighting strong growth prospects driven by both domestic and international demand for grid upgrades and renewable energy integration [3][4]. Core Insights - The global energy transition is driving the need for grid upgrades, with both domestic and international markets experiencing upward trends in demand. In China, significant investments are planned during the 14th Five-Year Plan, particularly in flexible direct current (DC) technologies and distribution networks [3][14]. - The 14th Five-Year Plan for ultra-high voltage (UHV) projects is clear, with a total investment of 380 billion yuan, leading to increased demand for core equipment such as DC converters and AC GIS [3][21]. - The report emphasizes the growing importance of distribution networks, with significant investments expected as policies are introduced to enhance safety and reliability in the context of a new power system [3][47]. - Global grid investments are projected to rise significantly, with emerging markets expected to see over 150% growth in grid expansion needs by 2050, presenting new opportunities for domestic electric power equipment manufacturers [3][57]. Summary by Sections Electric Power Equipment - Continuous high investment in grid infrastructure is noted, with a strong correlation between global energy demand growth and the need for grid expansion [14][16]. - The report cites that global electricity demand is expected to grow at an annual rate of 2.7%, increasing from nearly 25 trillion kWh in 2021 to almost 54 trillion kWh by 2050 [14][16]. Ultra-High Voltage (UHV) - The UHV construction is essential for transmitting renewable energy from resource-rich areas to load centers, with a clear investment plan for the 14th Five-Year Plan [20][21]. - The report details the planned construction of 30,000 kilometers of UHV lines and a total investment of 380 billion yuan, significantly higher than the previous five-year plan [21][22]. Distribution Networks - The report highlights the historical underinvestment in distribution networks, with a shift in focus expected during the 14th Five-Year Plan, where distribution network investments will exceed 1.2 trillion yuan [47][51]. - New policies are anticipated to accelerate investment in distribution networks, addressing the increasing complexity and safety risks associated with the integration of renewable energy sources [51][52]. Global Expansion Opportunities - The report indicates that global grid investments will need to accelerate, with projections suggesting annual investments exceeding $1 trillion after 2035 [57][68]. - Emerging markets are expected to see a significant increase in grid infrastructure needs, providing opportunities for domestic companies to expand internationally [57][68].