Industry Rating - The industry rating is Buy [1][2] Core Views - The CITIC media sector rose by 3.18% this week (Dec 9-13), outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.54 percentage points [4] - AI models and applications continue to land, boosting sector confidence, with related stocks showing significant gains [4] - The Ministry of Finance announced a 4-year extension of tax incentives for cultural institutions transitioning to enterprises, benefiting publishing and broadcasting sectors [4] - The Politburo meeting emphasized boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand, with cyclical sectors expected to benefit from economic recovery [4] Investment Recommendations Internet - Internet companies' PE ratios are generally in the high single-digit to low double-digit range for 2025 earnings expectations [5] - Recommended stocks: Tencent Holdings, Tencent Music, NetEase Cloud Music, Meituan, Kuaishou, Bilibili, Weibo, and Pop Mart [5] Gaming - The gaming sector is recommended due to policy improvements and strong market growth [5] - Recommended stocks: Perfect World, Century Huatong,恺英网络,姚记科技,创梦天地,神州泰岳,三七互娱,吉比特,电魂网络,冰川网络 [5] Publishing - Tax exemption policies for state-owned publishing enterprises have been extended for 4 years, enhancing dividend capabilities and investment value [5] - Recommended stocks: 中南传媒,皖新传媒,长江传媒,凤凰传媒,时代出版 [5] Film - The film industry is expected to see a supply inflection point, with the 2025 Spring Festival lineup potentially setting new box office records [5] - Recommended stocks: 猫眼娱乐,万达电影,光线传媒,阿里影业,博纳影业 [5] Marketing - Advertising confidence is expected to strengthen with macroeconomic recovery [5] - Recommended stocks: 分众传媒,兆讯传媒,蓝色光标,易点天下,引力传媒,因赛集团,省广集团 [5] State-Owned Enterprise Reform - Focus on state-owned enterprise reform and market value management [5] - Recommended stocks: 新媒股份,华数传媒,东方明珠,芒果超媒,中广天择,上海电影,唐德影视,电广传媒 [5] Key Company Performance Meituan-W - Q3 revenue: RMB 93.577 billion, up 22.38% YoY [42] - Q3 GAAP net profit: RMB 12.865 billion [42] - Core local commerce revenue: RMB 69.373 billion, up 20.25% YoY [42] Tencent Holdings - Q3 revenue: RMB 65.79 billion, up 8.0% YoY [42] - Q3 adjusted net profit: RMB 221.8 billion, up 45.0% YoY [42] Baidu - Q3 revenue: RMB 33.557 billion, down 3% YoY [43] - Q3 non-GAAP net profit: RMB 5.886 billion, down 19% YoY [43] Kuaishou-W - Q3 revenue: RMB 31.1 billion, up 11% YoY [47] - Q3 non-GAAP net profit: RMB 3.948 billion, up 24% YoY [47] Bilibili - Q3 revenue: RMB 7.3 billion, up 26% YoY [48] - Q3 non-GAAP net profit: RMB 236 million [48] 37 Interactive Entertainment - Q3 revenue growth driven by small games and stable operation of old games [49] - Q3 cash dividend: RMB 0.21 per share [49] Focus Media - Q3 advertising revenue driven by FMCG and internet sectors [52] - Expected 2024-25 revenue: RMB 12.612 billion and RMB 13.341 billion [52] Industry Data Film Market - Weekly box office (Dec 8-14): RMB 298 million, down 12.22% week-on-week [56] - Top 5 films: "好东西" (RMB 83.205 million), "孤星计划" (RMB 52.143 million), "破·地狱" (RMB 29.821 million), "误判" (RMB 22.714 million), "因果报应" (RMB 16.684 million) [56] TV Drama Market - Top 5 dramas by broadcast index: "我是刑警" (84.4), "猎罪图签2" (82.5), "九重紫" (82.3), "永夜星河" (81.8), "白夜破晓" (81.7) [62] Variety Show Market - Top 5 variety shows by broadcast index: "再见爱人第四季" (80.1), "现在就出发 第2季" (77.9), "奔跑吧茶马古道篇" (77.7), "生生不息大湾区季" (77.0), "种地吧第二季" (75.1) [67] Gaming Market - Top 5 mobile games: "王者荣耀", "金铲铲之战", "地下城与勇士：起源", "无尽冬日", "和平精英" [70] VC/PE Investments - Total of 9 VC/PE investments this week (Dec 9-13) [78] - Education: 3 investments [78] - Gaming: 1 investment [78] - Entertainment: 1 investment [78] - Local services: 4 investments [78]
互联网传媒行业投资策略周报：OpenAI Sora正式发布，关注税收优惠政策延续的长期影响
广发证券·2024-12-16 06:36