农林牧渔行业投资策略周报：如何看待11月生猪公司出栏数据

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Buy [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the overall pig output of listed companies in November 2024 showed a slight increase, with an average weight increase of 3.8% month-on-month. The total output of commodity pigs reached 14.06 million heads, a month-on-month increase of 0.5% and a year-on-year increase of 12.6% [4][23][24]. - The average selling price for November was estimated at 16.68 CNY/kg, down 5.1% month-on-month but up 17.7% year-on-year [4][24]. - The report suggests that the industry is expected to maintain a moderate recovery in pig production capacity in the second half of 2024, with a prolonged period of industry prosperity anticipated. Current valuations in the sector are at historical lows, recommending major breeding companies such as Wens Foodstuffs and Muyuan Foods, while also paying attention to New Hope and Zhengbang Technology for potential operational reversals [4][25]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Weekly Insights - The report discusses the November output data from major pig farming companies, indicating a slight increase in output and average weight [4][23]. - The total output of commodity pigs for November was 14.06 million heads, with a year-to-date increase of 5.6% for listed companies [4][24]. Section 2: Industry Tracking - The agricultural sector outperformed the market by 3 percentage points, with the feed, animal health, and aquaculture sectors showing the highest gains [42]. Section 3: Agricultural Product Price Tracking - As of December 13, the national average price for lean pigs was 15.7 CNY/kg, a slight decrease of 0.1% week-on-week but an increase of 14.4% year-on-year [38][46]. - The average price for piglets was 447.2 CNY/head, down 5.6% week-on-week [38][53]. - The report also notes that chicken prices remained stable, with the average price for broilers at 3.8 CNY/jin [38][58]. Section 4: Company Performance - Specific companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuffs, and New Hope reported varying output and sales figures, with some experiencing significant year-on-year growth while others faced declines [24][41]. - For instance, Muyuan Foods reported an output of 638.3 thousand heads in November, with a year-on-year increase of 20.5% [37]. Section 5: Price Trends - The report tracks price trends for various agricultural products, indicating fluctuations in prices for corn, soybean meal, and wheat, with corn prices at 2147 CNY/ton, down 0.4% week-on-week [38][46]. - The report also highlights the profitability of self-breeding versus purchased piglets, with self-breeding yielding a profit of 133 CNY/head [46][57].