国防军工行业投资策略周报：年底改善趋势渐显，看好船舶景气向好和卫星进展加速

Industry Rating - The report assigns a Buy rating to the Defense and Military Industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [3] Core Views - The industry is expected to see accelerated improvement as the "14th Five-Year Plan" concludes and the "15th Five-Year Plan" is formulated, with a focus on the aviation sector [18] - The shipbuilding sector is expected to maintain steady growth, with significant orders such as a 17 billion RMB contract for LNG dual-fuel container ships [19] - Satellite and rocket development is progressing rapidly, with multiple launches planned for late 2024 and early 2025, including the Long March 8A and Long March 5B rockets [19] - The report highlights four key investment strategies for 2025, focusing on ROE growth, turnaround opportunities, emerging trends, and state-owned enterprise reforms [20] Company Summaries Aero Engine Corporation (航发动力) - Expected to benefit from high-end aviation equipment production and long-term maintenance demand, with projected revenue of 497.62 billion RMB in 2024 [21] - Forecasted net profit for 2024-2025 is 15.22 billion RMB and 19.29 billion RMB, respectively, with a 2024 PE ratio of 71X [21] AVIC Xi'an Aircraft Industry (中航西飞) - A major manufacturer of military and civilian aircraft, with expected revenue growth of 11.9% in 2024 [24] - Forecasted net profit for 2024-2026 is 10.21 billion RMB, 12.83 billion RMB, and 15.83 billion RMB, respectively, with a 2024 PE ratio of 72X [24] AVIC Heavy Machinery (中航重机) - Expected to benefit from the aviation equipment supply chain and global maintenance markets, with a projected profit target of 18.6 billion RMB in 2024 [25] - Forecasted net profit for 2024-2026 is 15.76 billion RMB, 19.01 billion RMB, and 23.48 billion RMB, respectively, with a 2024 PE ratio of 19X [25] Raytron Technology (睿创微纳) - A leader in non-cooled infrared technology, with significant growth potential in military and civilian applications [27] - Forecasted net profit for 2024 is 6.52 billion RMB, with a 2024 PE ratio of 33X [27] Guorui Technology (国睿科技) - Focused on radar and low-altitude economy, with significant contracts in meteorological and low-altitude surveillance projects [28] - Forecasted net profit for 2024-2025 is 6.94 billion RMB and 9.89 billion RMB, respectively, with a 2024 PE ratio of 36X [28] Guangwei Composites (光威复材) - A key supplier in the aerospace carbon fiber market, with significant growth potential in satellite and missile applications [29] - Forecasted net profit for 2024-2026 is 9.30 billion RMB, 12.84 billion RMB, and 15.84 billion RMB, respectively, with a 2024 PE ratio of 30X [29] China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation (中国动力) - Expected to benefit from the shipbuilding cycle and engine technology advancements, with significant growth in maintenance and repair markets [31] - Forecasted net profit for 2024-2026 is 11.88 billion RMB, 16.90 billion RMB, and 25.67 billion RMB, respectively, with a 2024 PE ratio of 47X [31] AVIC Shenyang Aircraft (中航沈飞) - A leading manufacturer of fighter jets, with significant growth potential in military trade and maintenance markets [32] - Forecasted net profit for 2024-2026 is 37.59 billion RMB, 46.69 billion RMB, and 57.42 billion RMB, respectively, with a 2024 PE ratio of 36X [32] AVIC Optoelectronics (中航光电) - A leader in military connectors, with significant growth potential in aerospace, shipbuilding, and new energy sectors [33] - Forecasted net profit for 2024-2026 is 36.97 billion RMB, 44.88 billion RMB, and 53.70 billion RMB, respectively, with a 2024 PE ratio of 22X [33] Unigroup Guoxin (紫光国微) - A leader in integrated circuits, with significant growth potential in military and civilian applications [35] - Forecasted net profit for 2024-2026 is 28.07 billion RMB, 35.00 billion RMB, and 41.13 billion RMB, respectively, with a 2024 PE ratio of 39X [35] Zhongke Xingtu (中科星图) - Focused on the digital earth and low-altitude economy, with significant growth potential in satellite and AI applications [36] - Forecasted net profit for 2024-2026 is 4.86 billion RMB, 6.83 billion RMB, and 9.30 billion RMB, respectively, with a 2024 PE ratio of 64X [36] CETC 712 (七一二) - A leader in military wireless communication, with significant growth potential in satellite and AI applications [38] - Forecasted net profit for 2024-2026 is 1.75 billion RMB, 4.10 billion RMB, and 5.26 billion RMB, respectively, with a 2024 PE ratio of 89X [38] Haige Communications (海格通信) - A leader in military communication and navigation, with significant growth potential in satellite and AI applications [39] - Forecasted net profit for 2024-2026 is 4.62 billion RMB, 9.20 billion RMB, and 12.92 billion RMB, respectively, with a 2024 PE ratio of 69X [39]