银行业银行资负跟踪：财政支出与降准预期推动年底宽松

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [3] Core Insights - The report indicates that fiscal spending and expectations of reserve requirement ratio cuts are driving year-end liquidity easing [41] - The central bank conducted a net injection of 184.4 billion CNY through reverse repos this week, with a focus on maintaining liquidity amid upcoming large MLF maturities [41][42] - Government bond net payments are expected to decrease significantly in the upcoming period, indicating a shift towards increased fiscal spending [41][42] Summary by Sections 1. Fiscal Spending and Reserve Requirement Ratio Expectations - The central bank's operations included 538.5 billion CNY in 7-day reverse repos at a rate of 1.50%, with a net injection of 184.4 billion CNY [41] - Government bond net payments were 749.9 billion CNY this period, with expectations of a decline to approximately -34.0 billion CNY next period [41][42] 2. Central Bank Dynamics and Market Interest Rates - The report notes changes in funding rates, with DR001, DR007, DR014, DR021, and DR1M showing variations of -7.7bp, +2.6bp, +6.4bp, +17.4bp, and +12.3bp respectively [43] - The report highlights a downward trend in government bond yields, influenced by a recent political bureau meeting advocating for more proactive fiscal policies [45] 3. Bank Financing Tracking - The issuance of negotiable certificates of deposit (NCD) totaled 954.4 billion CNY, with a net financing scale of 587.0 billion CNY [44] - The average yield on NCDs showed mixed results, with 1M rates increasing by 2.1bp while longer-term rates decreased [44] - The total outstanding amount of interbank certificates of deposit reached 18.71 trillion CNY, with an average remaining maturity of 157 days [48]