策略深度报告：2025年海外策略展望：降息周期下的新一轮复苏（经济篇）

Economic Outlook - The global economy is expected to maintain moderate growth in 2025, with significant structural differentiation among countries[1] - The US economy is projected to experience a "weak recovery," with a shift in growth drivers from consumption to investment, particularly in Q2 2025[1] - Japan's economy is anticipated to accelerate recovery, supported by rising wages and improved domestic demand[2] Regional Analysis - The Eurozone faces ongoing economic challenges due to insufficient domestic demand and external tariff impacts, with major economies like Germany, France, and Italy expected to continue low growth[2] - Spain is expected to outperform other Eurozone countries, driven by a strong recovery in tourism, contributing approximately 0.76 percentage points to GDP growth in 2024[2] - India's economic growth is projected to slow down due to high inflation and interest rates, with GDP growth rates expected to decline to 6.6% in 2025[3] Monetary Policy - A global interest rate reduction cycle is anticipated in 2025, with around 80% of countries expected to be in a rate-cutting phase[3] - The US Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 75 to 125 basis points in 2025, with the timing of rate cuts potentially advancing to H1 2025[3] - The European Central Bank is projected to implement a 100 basis point rate cut in response to economic pressures[3] Risks and Challenges - Geopolitical risks, potential US economic recession, and unexpected "black swan" events pose significant threats to the global economic outlook[3] - The Eurozone's fiscal constraints limit its ability to respond effectively to economic downturns, with government debt levels exceeding 60% of GDP in several member states[2] - India's central bank faces pressure to lower interest rates amid high inflation and slowing economic growth, with a new governor likely to prioritize growth[3]