11月社融数据点评：增量政策落地，社融总量改善

Financial Data Summary - In November 2024, the incremental social financing scale was 23,357 billion yuan, a decrease of 1,197 billion yuan compared to the same period last year[1] - The total social financing stock reached 405.6 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.8%[1] Credit and Loan Analysis - New credit in November was 5,223 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5,897 billion yuan, worsening from a decrease of 1,872 billion yuan in the previous month[1] - Short-term loans saw a significant reduction, with a decrease of 964 billion yuan year-on-year, contrasting with an increase of 1,543 billion yuan in the previous month[1] - Long-term loans increased by 669 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating a slight improvement in the real estate sector[1] Government Bond and Fiscal Policy - Government bonds added 13,101 billion yuan in November, an increase of 1,589 billion yuan year-on-year, reflecting the rapid implementation of fiscal policies[1] - By the end of November, the issuance of local government refinancing special bonds had nearly reached the annual planned issuance amount[1] Monetary Supply and Economic Indicators - M1 and M2 growth rates were -3.7% and 7.1%, respectively, with the M1-M2 gap narrowing to -10.8%[1] - The data indicates that while total financing has room for further recovery, there are structural improvements, particularly in long-term loans and government bond issuance[1] Risks and Outlook - Risks include potential economic recovery falling short of expectations and tighter overseas monetary policies[1]