半导体行业2025年年度策略报告：AI将是强引擎，国产化有望进深水区

Industry Overview - The semiconductor industry has shown strong performance since Q3 2024, driven by national stimulus policies and a recovery cycle, with the semiconductor index rising by 24.49% as of December 10, 2024, outperforming the CSI 300 by 8.04 percentage points [4] - WSTS forecasts a 19% growth rate for the semiconductor industry in 2024, reaching a market size of over $600 billion, primarily driven by memory and processors [4] - In 2025, AI will remain the main driver of growth, with the memory market stabilizing and other sectors such as analog, optoelectronics, and power devices also recovering [4] AI and Domestic Substitution - AI will continue to be the primary growth driver in 2025, with strong downstream capital expenditure stimulating demand for core products like GPUs, ASICs, HBM, and switching chips [4] - Domestic substitution in the semiconductor industry is expected to deepen, with domestic companies gaining market opportunities in areas like processors, power, analog, and logic chips [4] - The US government has added 140 Chinese semiconductor-related companies to the Entity List, prompting domestic companies to accelerate their efforts in achieving self-sufficiency in EDA tools, IP, materials, equipment, manufacturing, and packaging [4] Investment Recommendations - The semiconductor industry is expected to grow steadily in 2025, with a more balanced and healthy growth structure compared to 2024 [4] - Key investment directions include AI-related sectors, with recommendations for companies like Hygon Information (processor chips), Huahai Chengke (HBM), and Shengke Communication (network chips) [4] - Domestic substitution opportunities are highlighted in EDA tools (recommending Empyrean Technology), packaging (recommending Tongfu Microelectronics), and materials (recommending Dinglong and Anji Technology) [4] Market Performance and Trends - The semiconductor index rebounded strongly in late Q3 2024, with the PE TTM (trailing twelve months) reaching 78.35x, indicating high valuations [26] - The semiconductor equipment sub-sector rose by 35.20% in 2024, while packaging and digital chip design sectors also saw significant gains [26] - Global semiconductor sales are expected to grow by 11.2% in 2025, with integrated circuits, sensors, and optoelectronics sectors showing positive growth [54] AI and Computing Chips - AI-related semiconductors, particularly GPUs and ASICs, have driven significant growth in 2024, with companies like NVIDIA and AMD experiencing rapid revenue increases [59] - Domestic AI semiconductor companies, such as Hygon Information and Cambricon, are benefiting from the AI wave, with their revenues growing rapidly [62] - HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) technology is evolving rapidly, with companies like SK Hynix and Micron increasing their HBM3E shipments [68] Advanced Packaging - Advanced packaging is expected to account for 53% of the total packaging market by 2028, driven by AI, HPC, and automotive applications [101] - 2.5D/3D packaging is the fastest-growing segment, with a CAGR of 30.5% from 2023 to 2029, driven by high-performance computing and AI [109] - Leading companies like NVIDIA and AMD are leveraging advanced packaging to improve performance and reduce costs, with NVIDIA's H200 achieving 4.8TB/s interconnect speeds [104] Storage and Other Sectors - The storage market, particularly DRAM and NAND Flash, has entered a period of steady growth after a strong recovery in 2024 [83] - The MCU and power device sectors are still in the recovery phase, with companies like Infineon facing challenges due to weak demand and high inventory levels [91] - The smartphone and wearable markets are recovering, with domestic companies in SoC, analog, and CIS chips showing strong growth [74]