轻工制造2025年度策略：传统消费复苏在途，新兴赛道空间可期

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the light industry sector, but it suggests potential recovery and investment opportunities in specific segments such as home furnishings and paper manufacturing. Core Insights - Traditional consumption is on the path to recovery, and emerging sectors present promising opportunities [2] - The home furnishings sector is expected to benefit from the ongoing "old-for-new" policy, with a focus on valuation recovery for leading companies [4] - The paper industry is entering a phase of supply-demand optimization at the bottom of the cycle, with potential improvements in market structure [5] - The tobacco industry is actively transforming traditional products while innovating in new tobacco products [7] - The new consumption sector, particularly cross-border e-commerce, is experiencing robust growth, driven by the monetization of IP in the "millet economy" [8] Summary by Sections 1. Review: Valuations Remain at Historical Lows, Overall Performance Under Pressure - The light industry sector ranked 26th among 31 primary industries in terms of cumulative performance from January 2 to December 6, 2024, with a growth of only 0.27% [12][15] - The cumulative performance of various sub-sectors underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, with home furnishings showing a decline of 3.56% [12][15] - The overall revenue for the light industry in the first three quarters of 2024 was CNY 4,453.82 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 2.24%, while net profit decreased by 1.82% [21] 2. Home Furnishings: Ongoing "Old-for-New" Policy, Focus on Valuation Recovery - The "old-for-new" policy is expected to stimulate home furnishings consumption, with leading companies likely to benefit significantly [4][42] - The policy includes subsidies for home renovations and support for green and smart home products, which may drive consumer demand [4][42] 3. Paper Manufacturing: Supply-Demand Optimization at Cycle Bottom - The paper industry has entered a passive destocking cycle since October 2023, with expectations of a transition to active restocking by Q1 2025 [5] - The profitability of paper companies is under pressure due to rising raw material costs, but certain companies may see improvements in profitability if production cuts are sustained [5][30] 4. Tobacco: Traditional Tobacco Actively Transforming, New Tobacco Innovating - Traditional tobacco companies are adapting to declining cigarette sales by increasing prices and introducing new products [7] - New tobacco products, particularly heated non-combustible (HNB) cigarettes, are gaining market acceptance and driving growth [7] 5. New Consumption: Cross-Border E-Commerce Thriving, Millet Economy Driving IP Monetization - China's cross-border e-commerce market reached CNY 10,296.91 billion in 2023, growing by 29% year-on-year [8] - The millet economy, focusing on monetizing IP in the two-dimensional space, is projected to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate of 16.6% from 2024 to 2029 [8]