银行业2025年度投资策略：业绩筑底，估值重塑

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the banking sector, recommending "Buy" or "Hold" for several key banks, including Agricultural Bank, China Merchants Bank, and Chengdu Bank [1][2]. Core Insights - The banking sector has shown strong performance, with a year-to-date increase of 36.8%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 21 percentage points [18]. - The sector's growth is driven by both capital inflows from passive index funds and a stable fundamental performance, with banks maintaining a solid provision cushion to smooth out cyclical fluctuations [23]. - The report anticipates a rebound in credit growth in 2025, supported by a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy [32][36]. Summary by Sections 1. 2024 Banking Stock Review - The banking sector has experienced a broad rally, with state-owned banks rising by 37.5% and city commercial banks by 40.5% [18]. - The PB valuation of the banking sector has recovered to over 0.6 times, indicating a positive market sentiment [18]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - Volume - The report highlights a shift towards a more proactive fiscal policy, with expected credit growth in 2025 surpassing that of 2024 [36]. - Corporate loans, particularly in infrastructure and manufacturing, are projected to remain robust, supported by government policies [39]. 3. Fundamental Analysis - Price - Net interest margins are under pressure but are expected to decline at a slower rate than in 2024 due to improved deposit pricing [2]. - The report notes that while asset yields may face downward pressure, deposit costs are expected to improve significantly [2]. 4. Credit Risk Improvement - The overall asset quality of banks is stable, with sufficient provisions to absorb potential losses [2]. - The report indicates that the new round of debt restructuring and stabilization in the real estate sector will enhance credit risk expectations for banks [2]. 5. Valuation Restructuring - The report suggests that the banking sector's long-term valuation is likely to be reshaped due to significant debt restructuring efforts [2]. - Regulatory focus on market capitalization management is expected to further support the valuation of major banks [2]. 6. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on cyclical stocks, particularly China Merchants Bank, Ningbo Bank, and Chengdu Bank, as well as banks benefiting from debt restructuring like Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank [2].