Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Hold" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company focuses on the dairy and sugar industries, engaging in feed and sugar beet planting, dairy cattle breeding, fresh milk supply, and the production of dairy products and white sugar, forming a comprehensive agricultural and livestock industry chain [4][21]. - In 2023, the company's revenues from its three main business segments—livestock, dairy, and sugar—were 485 million, 304 million, and 454 million CNY, accounting for 38.61%, 24.20%, and 36.15% of total revenue, respectively [4][21]. - The company has significantly increased its self-owned pasture ratio, with the proportion of self-owned pastures in the fresh milk supply rising from 1.79% in 2020 to 26.41% in 2022, leading to higher procurement prices for organic fresh milk [4][37]. - The company primarily generates revenue from Inner Mongolia, with revenue from this region accounting for 63.97%, 68.24%, and 73.42% of total revenue in 2020, 2021, and 2022, respectively. However, revenue from outside the province grew rapidly in 2023, with a growth rate of 93.69% [4][44]. - The report forecasts the company's operating revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 1,316.57 million, 1,437.03 million, and 1,623.55 million CNY, representing year-on-year growth rates of 4.80%, 9.15%, and 12.98%, respectively [5]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company was established in 2007 and listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange in 2023, initially focusing on the dairy industry and later expanding into sugar production [18]. - The management team has extensive experience, with key executives having worked in the company for many years [30][35]. Industry Overview - The fresh milk prices in China have been on a downward trend since February 2022 due to increased supply from new large-scale pastures, leading to a decline in procurement prices in major production areas [4][63]. - The dairy product industry is experiencing a slowdown in growth, with a stable competitive landscape dominated by two national leaders [4][63]. - The sugar industry in China is transitioning towards a model primarily driven by domestic circulation, while also promoting the integration of international and domestic markets [4][63]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company's projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 342.8 million, 853.5 million, and 1,118.1 million CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of -63.47%, 148.96%, and 31.01%, respectively [5]. - The current market capitalization corresponds to price-to-earnings ratios of 61.5, 24.7, and 18.9 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 [5].
骑士乳业：聚焦乳、糖产业，业务涵盖农、牧、乳、糖四大板块