证券研究报告·行业点评报告 2025 年 5 月 30 日 江海证券研究发展部 电子行业 执业证书编号：S1410525010001 联系人：刘瑜 执业证书编号：S1410123110011 行业评级：增持（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 -1.94 -11.49 26.37 绝对收益 0.27 -14.24 33.15 数据来源：聚源 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师：张婧 雷鸟发布光波导方案 X3 Pro AR 眼镜， 融合 AI 多模态大模型 事件： 雷鸟发布 X3 Pro 全彩波导一体式 AR 眼镜。2025 年 5 月 27 日，雷鸟发布 X3 Pro 全彩波导一体式 AR 眼镜。 投资要点： 江海证券有限公司及其关联机构在法律许可的情况下可能与本报告所分析的企业存在业务关系，并且继续寻求发展这些关系。因此，投资者应当考虑到本公司可能存在影响本报告客观性的 利益冲突，不应视本报告为投资决策的唯一因素。 敬请参阅最后一页之免责条款 雷鸟发布 X3 Pro 全彩波导一体式 AR 眼镜。2025 年 5 月 27 日，消费级 AR 领 先品牌雷鸟创新 Ra ...

- 中证2000和中证1000的风险溢价在近5年分位值较高，分别为75.63%和62.54%[3][28][30] - 创业板指的峰度正偏离最大，而中证2000的峰度正偏离最小[23][25] - 中证500和中证1000的PE-TTM分位值较高，分别为81.49%和76.28%[40][41] - 沪深300和中证全指的股息率在近5年历史分位值较高，分别为94.21%和93.22%[52][50] - 中证2000的破净率最低，为5.65%[53][54]

- The report provides a snapshot of the performance of broad-based indices in the A-share market, highlighting daily and annual changes, with indices like CSI 2000 showing the highest annual growth of 1.7% while indices like the ChiNext Index experienced the largest annual decline of -9.67% [12][13][14] - All indices have fallen below their 5-day moving averages, with CSI 300 and ChiNext Index remaining above their 10-day moving averages, and indices like SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 2000 staying above their 20-day moving averages [16][17] - CSI 2000 had the highest trading volume share at 30.31%, followed by CSI 1000 at 21.36% and CSI 300 at 20.27%; turnover rates were highest for CSI 2000 at 3.7 and lowest for SSE 50 at 0.19 [19] - The distribution of daily returns shows that the ChiNext Index has the highest positive skewness and kurtosis, indicating concentrated returns and increased extreme positive returns, while CSI 2000 has the lowest positive skewness and kurtosis [24][26] - Risk premium analysis reveals that SSE 50 and CSI 300 have relatively high 5-year percentile values of 55.08% and 45.48%, respectively, while CSI 1000 and CSI 2000 have lower values at 19.76% and 15.0% [30][32][34] - PE-TTM analysis indicates that CSI 500 and CSI 1000 have high 5-year percentile values of 80.5% and 67.85%, respectively, while CSI 300 and ChiNext Index have lower values at 50.41% and 19.5% [40][41][43] - Dividend yield analysis shows that CSI 300 and CSI All Share have high 5-year percentile values of 93.55% and 93.47%, respectively, while SSE 50 and CSI 500 have lower values at 77.27% and 68.93% [51][52] - Current net-breaking rates are highest for SSE 50 at 28.0% and lowest for ChiNext Index at 3.0%, reflecting market valuation attitudes and optimism levels [53]

- The report primarily focuses on tracking and analyzing the performance of broad-based indices in the A-share market, including metrics such as daily returns, moving averages, turnover rates, risk premiums, PE-TTM, dividend yields, and price-to-book ratios [1][2][3] - **Daily Returns and Trends**: The report highlights that indices like the CSI 2000 and ChiNext Index showed the highest daily gains on April 23, 2025, with 1.17% and 1.08%, respectively. The CSI 2000 also led in year-to-date performance with a 3.94% increase, while the ChiNext Index lagged with an -8.99% return [11][12] - **Moving Averages**: All indices were above their 10-day moving averages, with the CSI 1000, CSI 2000, and CSI All Share Index exceeding their 20-day moving averages. However, the SSE 50 fell below its 5-day and 120-day moving averages [14] - **Turnover Rates**: The CSI 2000 had the highest turnover rate at 4.08%, followed by the CSI 1000 at 2.24%. The SSE 50 had the lowest turnover rate at 0.19% [16] - **Risk Premiums**: The CSI 2000 and ChiNext Index had the highest 5-year percentile risk premiums at 79.84% and 77.22%, respectively, while the SSE 50 and CSI 300 had lower values at 39.05% and 54.29% [27][29] - **PE-TTM Analysis**: The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 had relatively high 5-year percentile PE-TTM values at 78.84% and 62.98%, respectively. The ChiNext Index had the lowest at 22.07%. None of the indices exceeded the 80% danger threshold [37][38] - **Dividend Yields**: The CSI 300 and CSI All Share Index had the highest 5-year percentile dividend yields at 97.27% and 95.79%, respectively. The CSI 2000 and CSI 500 had lower values at 83.22% and 68.26% [48][49] - **Price-to-Book Ratios**: The report notes that the CSI 2000 had the lowest price-to-book ratio at 5.65%, while the SSE 50 had the highest at 28.0%. This metric reflects market valuation attitudes and potential undervaluation [50]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 43.70 CNY, representing a potential upside from the current price of 39.71 CNY over a 12-month period [1][6]. Core Insights - The company, Focus Technology Co., Ltd., is positioned in the AI e-commerce sector, with significant growth potential driven by the rapid development of AI applications and a strong foreign trade market in China [4][6]. - The company's main business segments include the China Manufacturing Network, foreign trade AI applications, cross-border e-commerce, and new insurance agency services [28][34]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Focus Technology Co., Ltd. was established in January 1996 and is headquartered in Nanjing, Jiangsu Province. It was listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in December 2009 under the stock code 002315.SZ [12][6]. Industry Analysis - In 2024, China's total import and export trade reached 43.85 trillion CNY, marking a historical high with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.0% [21][22]. - The foreign trade market is characterized by product structure optimization, with a notable increase in high-tech product exports [22][23]. Main Business Analysis - The China Manufacturing Network is the core business, contributing approximately 81% of total revenue from 2022 to 2024, with steady revenue growth [31][30]. - The foreign trade AI application business is rapidly growing, with significant cash returns and increasing membership for the AI assistant, AI Maike [40][34]. Financial Analysis - The company has shown steady revenue growth, with total revenues of 14.75 billion CNY in 2022, increasing to 16.69 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [49][66]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders also demonstrated robust growth, reaching 4.51 billion CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 19.09% [49][66]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 19.01 billion CNY, 21.54 billion CNY, and 24.11 billion CNY from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 14.46%, 13.31%, and 11.91% [66][67]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for the same period are projected to be 1.77 CNY, 2.12 CNY, and 2.46 CNY, with a target price based on a 2026 PE ratio of 25 times [66][67].

- The report tracks the performance of various broad-based indices in the A-share market, including the daily, weekly, monthly, and yearly changes in their values. For instance, on April 22, 2025, most indices declined except for the SSE 50, which rose by 0.14%[3][12][14] - The report compares the indices with their moving averages and their positions relative to the highs and lows of the past 250 trading days. For example, the SSE 50 fell below its 5-day moving average, while all tracked indices remained above their 10-day moving averages[17][19] - The report analyzes the trading volume and turnover rates of the indices. On April 22, 2025, the CSI 2000 had the highest trading volume share at 29.84%, followed by the CSI 1000 at 22.86% and the CSI 300 at 19.47%[21] - The report examines the distribution of daily returns for the indices, noting that the ChiNext Index had the highest positive skewness and kurtosis, indicating a higher concentration of returns in certain ranges and an increased likelihood of extreme positive returns[26][28] - The report evaluates the risk premiums of the indices relative to the 10-year government bond yield. On April 22, 2025, the SSE 50 and CSI 300 had relatively high 5-year percentile risk premiums at 57.62% and 50.0%, respectively, while the CSI 500 and ChiNext Index had lower values at 36.03% and 30.08%[31][32][33] - The report assesses the PE-TTM (Price-to-Earnings Trailing Twelve Months) ratios of the indices as a valuation metric. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 had relatively high 5-year percentile values at 78.68% and 62.48%, respectively, while the CSI 300 and ChiNext Index had lower values at 49.42% and 21.4%[36][39][43][44] - The report tracks the dividend yields of the indices, noting that the CSI 300 and CSI All Share had relatively high 5-year percentile values at 97.11% and 95.95%, respectively, while the CSI 2000 and CSI 500 had lower values at 83.97% and 70.08%[47][51][53][54] - The report monitors the price-to-book ratios of the indices, indicating the proportion of stocks trading below their book value. As of the report date, the SSE 50 had the highest percentage of stocks trading below book value at 26.0%, while the ChiNext Index had the lowest at 3.0%[55]

- The report tracks the performance of broad-based indices, highlighting that on April 21, 2025, indices such as CSI 2000 (2.29%) and CSI 1000 (2.07%) had the highest daily gains, while SSE 50 (-0.18%) declined [3][15][16] - All tracked indices exceeded their 5-day and 10-day moving averages, but most remained below their 20-day moving averages, with CSI 500, CSI 1000, and ChiNext showing significant deviations from longer-term averages, indicating potential reversal momentum [19][20] - CSI 2000 had the highest trading volume share at 29.67%, followed by CSI 1000 (22.15%) and CSI 300 (20.14%), with turnover rates ranging from 0.2% (SSE 50) to 3.49% (CSI 2000) [5][22] - Daily return distributions show that ChiNext had the highest positive skewness and kurtosis, indicating concentrated returns and increased extreme positive outcomes, while CSI 2000 had the lowest skewness and kurtosis [28][29] - Risk premium analysis reveals CSI 2000 (94.44%) and CSI 1000 (93.65%) had the highest 5-year percentile values, while SSE 50 (43.73%) and CSI 300 (65.63%) were lower, reflecting relative investment attractiveness [31][32][34] - PE-TTM values indicate CSI 500 (79.42%) and CSI 1000 (62.4%) are near high historical percentiles, suggesting elevated valuations, while CSI 300 (47.6%) and ChiNext (21.9%) are relatively undervalued [44][45] - Dividend yield analysis shows CSI 300 (98.43%) and CSI All Index (96.03%) are at high historical percentiles, while CSI 2000 (84.05%) and CSI 500 (70.91%) are lower, reflecting varying levels of cash return attractiveness [52][54][55] - Current net asset break rates indicate SSE 50 (26.0%) has the highest rate, followed by CSI 300 (19.0%) and CSI 500 (15.4%), with ChiNext (3.0%) being the lowest, reflecting market valuation attitudes [56]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [5] Core Insights - The humanoid robot industry is experiencing accelerated commercialization, with a focus on the order fulfillment situation of chain enterprises [4][5] - The first humanoid robot half marathon event highlighted the current shortcomings in humanoid robots, indicating that both hardware and software require significant improvements [7] - The event serves to promote technological upgrades and long-term healthy development of the humanoid robot industry, providing a platform for companies to showcase their progress and collaborate [7] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - Over the past 12 months, the industry has shown a relative return of 13.29% and an absolute return of 20.16% [3] Investment Highlights - The humanoid robots showcased at the half marathon lacked autonomous decision-making capabilities and required human assistance for operation, indicating a need for further innovation in algorithms and component design [7] - The event also revealed issues with heat dissipation and battery life, suggesting that current robots are not yet ready for real-world applications [7] - The report emphasizes that the ultimate goal for humanoid robots is not just to participate in events but to be applied in factories, homes, healthcare, and service sectors [7] Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in key components such as reducers, motors, sensors, lead screws, and the humanoid robots themselves, highlighting specific companies to watch for potential growth [7]

Group 1 - The report highlights that during the period from April 7 to April 18, 2025, the overall stock market experienced a correction, while the North Exchange (北交所) saw a counter-trend increase, with the North 50 index rising by 4.44% despite declines in major indices such as the CSI 300 (-2.3%) and the ChiNext (-7.33%) [3][5] - The report identifies that the strong performance of the North 50 index constituents is attributed to factors such as smaller market capitalization, policy support expectations, and some companies' earnings growth, which attracted capital inflows [5][9] - The top three performing stocks in the North Exchange during this period were Yizhi Moyu (一致魔芋) with a rise of 79.17%, Minshida (民士达) with 78.69%, and Guangrong International (广容国际) with 58.14% [6][12] Group 2 - The report notes that the North Exchange's industry performance was robust, with significant gains in sectors such as agriculture, diversified chemicals, and consulting services, indicating structural opportunities within the market [9][10] - The report suggests that investors should focus on stocks with competitive advantages in specific industries, such as Yizhi Moyu in agriculture, Minshida in diversified chemicals, and Guangrong International in consulting services, as these companies are likely to continue attracting capital inflows [10][11] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the performance of companies in the context of market sentiment and external factors, as some stocks faced declines due to industry competition and policy changes [7][9]

- The report primarily focuses on tracking and analyzing the performance of broad-based indices in the A-share market, including metrics such as daily returns, moving averages, turnover rates, risk premiums, PE-TTM, dividend yields, and price-to-book ratios[1][2][3] - The turnover rate calculation is based on the formula: $ \text{Turnover Rate} = \frac{\Sigma(\text{Component Stocks' Free Float Shares} \times \text{Component Stocks' Turnover Rate})}{\Sigma(\text{Component Stocks' Free Float Shares})} $ This metric is used to evaluate the liquidity of the indices[19] - The risk premium is calculated using the yield of 10-year government bonds as the risk-free rate, providing a measure of the relative investment value and deviation of each index. The report highlights that indices like CSI 2000 and ChiNext have higher 5-year percentile values for risk premiums, indicating relatively higher investment attractiveness[28][29][31] - The PE-TTM (Price-to-Earnings Trailing Twelve Months) is analyzed as a valuation metric. The report observes that indices such as CSI 500 and SSE 50 have higher 5-year percentile values, while indices like CSI 2000 and ChiNext have lower percentile values, reflecting differences in valuation levels across indices[37][39][40] - Dividend yield is tracked as a measure of cash return to investors. The report notes that indices like CSI 300 and CSI All Share have historically high 5-year percentile values, making them attractive for dividend-focused investors[45][50][51] - The price-to-book ratio (P/B) is used to assess market valuation relative to book value. The report highlights the percentage of stocks within each index trading below their book value, with indices like SSE 50 and CSI 300 showing higher percentages of stocks trading above book value, indicating market optimism[52]