HKEX(00388) 第一上海证券·2024-12-16 07:40Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX) with a target price of 360 HKD, representing a 16% upside from the current price [3][10] Core Views - HKEX delivered strong performance in the first three quarters of 2024, with revenue and other income reaching 15.99 billion HKD (YoY +2%), the second-highest in history [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 5 million HKD to 9.27 billion HKD, driven by higher trading and clearing fees from spot, derivatives, and commodity markets [3] - Spot market revenue reached 6.35 billion HKD, with average daily turnover growing 5% YoY to 102.7 billion HKD, supported by economic stimulus measures in mainland China and global monetary easing [3] - Stock Connect performance was robust, with average daily turnover rising 14% YoY to 123.3 billion CNY, contributing 1.78 billion HKD in revenue (YoY +4%) [3][7] - Derivatives market saw record-high average daily volume of 1.516 million contracts (YoY +12%), though revenue declined 12% to 4.28 billion HKD due to lower margin investment income [3] - Commodities market revenue surged 31% YoY to 2.1 billion HKD, driven by higher LME trading and clearing fees [3] - Investment income decreased 4% YoY to 3.73 billion HKD, primarily due to lower margin requirements and increased interest rebates to attract trading volume [3] Business Segment Performance - Trading and trading system usage fees: 4.98 billion HKD (YoY +6%) [3] - Clearing and settlement fees: 3.18 billion HKD (YoY +7%) [3] - Listing fees: 1.08 billion HKD (YoY -6%) [3] - Depository and agency services fees: 890 million HKD (YoY -1%) [3] - Market data fees: 810 million HKD (YoY -2%) [3] - Other income: 1.26 billion HKD (YoY +8%) [3] Financial Forecasts - Revenue: Expected to grow from 22.23 billion HKD in 2024 to 24.38 billion HKD in 2026 [10] - Net profit: Projected to increase from 12.77 billion HKD in 2024 to 13.93 billion HKD in 2026 [10] - Diluted EPS: Forecasted to rise from 10.07 HKD in 2024 to 10.99 HKD in 2026 [10] - Dividend per share: Anticipated to grow from 9.0 HKD in 2024 to 9.9 HKD in 2026 [10] Market Performance - Average daily turnover in the Hong Kong market reached 102.7 billion HKD in the first three quarters of 2024, a 5% YoY increase [3] - Stock Connect average daily turnover stood at 110.3 billion CNY (YoY +4%), with Southbound turnover at 39.6 billion HKD (YoY +37%) [8] - Stock Connect revenue accounted for 11% of HKEX's total revenue and other income in the first three quarters of 2024 [9]