黎巴嫩临时损害和损失评估：评估报告（英）2024

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the industry, but it highlights significant economic losses and damage across multiple sectors due to the ongoing conflict in Lebanon [23][24] Core Findings - The conflict has caused at least $3.4 billion in physical damage and$5.1 billion in economic losses as of the assessment cut-off dates [24] - Lebanon's real GDP growth for 2024 is estimated to be cut by at least 6.6% due to the conflict, compounding a 34% contraction in real GDP over the past five years [24] - The housing sector accounts for 82% of the total damage, with $2.8 billion in damages and$389 million in losses [26][28] - The agriculture sector has suffered $124 million in damage and$1.1 billion in losses, primarily due to lost harvests and displacement of farmers [26][50] - The tourism and hospitality sector has incurred $18 million in damage but faces$1.1 billion in losses due to reduced tourist arrivals and hotel occupancy [26][66] Sectoral Assessment Findings Agriculture - Damage is estimated at $124 million, with 12-month losses of$1.1 billion, driven by lost harvests and displacement of farmers [50] - Key crops such as bananas, olives, and citrus have been severely impacted, with losses estimated at $353 million,$58 million, and $16 million respectively [51] - Livestock has also been significantly affected, with$99 million in damage and $533 million in losses [51] Commerce - Damage to the commerce sector is estimated at$178 million, with 12-month losses of $1.7 billion [52] - Approximately 11$215 million in losses, primarily due to lost private school tuition payments and the costs of setting up temporary learning spaces [55] - Around 150,000 public and 300,000 private school students have been displaced, with many schools repurposed as shelters [57] Environment - Damage to the environment sector is estimated at $221 million, with 12-month losses of$214 million [58] - The conflict has severely damaged Lebanon's natural resources, affecting 13% of forests, 16% of grasslands, and 17% of riverine ecosystems [59] Health - The health sector has suffered $74 million in damage, with 12-month losses estimated at$338 million [60] - Approximately 66% of hospitals and 36% of primary healthcare centers in the assessed areas have been damaged, leading to reduced service availability [62] Housing - The housing sector has incurred $2.8 billion in damage, with 99,209 housing units partially or fully damaged [63] - Economic losses in the housing sector are estimated at$389 million, including lost rental revenue and wage income for domestic workers [64] Tourism and Hospitality - Damage to the tourism and hospitality sector is estimated at $18 million, with 12-month losses of$1.1 billion [66] - Tourist arrivals have dropped by 75%, and hotel occupancy rates have fallen below 10%, severely impacting the sector [68] Macroeconomic Analysis - The conflict has significantly impacted Lebanon's economy, with real GDP projected to contract by at least 5.7% in 2024 [40] - Private consumption, which accounted for 134% of GDP in 2023, has declined sharply, further slowing economic activity [40] - The tourism sector, a key economic pillar, has been particularly hard hit, with major losses in service exports [40] Displacement and Social Impact - Over 875,000 people have been internally displaced, with women, children, and the elderly particularly at risk [44] - Approximately 166,000 individuals are estimated to have lost their employment, corresponding to a reduction in earnings of up to $168 million per year [44] - The conflict has exacerbated food insecurity, with only 40,000 tons of wheat available as of November 2024, equivalent to 1.3 months' worth of consumption [46]