跟上步伐：通货膨胀如何侵蚀现金转移以及如何应对（英）2024

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry discussed Core Insights - The indexation of benefits is a crucial yet underexplored aspect of adaptive social protection (ASP), allowing cash transfers to keep pace with inflation and changing economic conditions [11][12] - A comprehensive analysis of 232 non-contributory cash transfer programs across 158 countries reveals that nearly 80% have some form of indexation, with about one-third employing automatic adjustments [12][13] - The report highlights the evolution of indexation practices over time, noting that while higher-income countries typically have established indexation systems, lower-income countries are increasingly adopting innovative practices [13][15] Summary by Sections Introduction - Food prices have seen significant increases, with some countries experiencing food inflation rates exceeding 100%, impacting the purchasing power of cash transfers [18][21] - The relationship between cash transfers and inflation is complex, with evidence suggesting that cash transfers do not inherently drive prices up, depending on market structures [30][32] The Case for and Against (Automatic) Indexation - Indexation can be discretionary or automatic, with automatic adjustments providing more predictability and transparency [40][41] - The report discusses the benefits of automatic indexation, including maintaining program effectiveness and reducing hidden costs for beneficiaries, while also acknowledging potential drawbacks such as fiscal burdens in high inflation contexts [41][52] Results from Global Indexation Database - Approximately 79% of cash transfer programs adjust benefits, with 32% employing automatic adjustments, predominantly in high-income countries [60][65] - Social pensions are the most commonly automatically indexed cash transfers, while unconditional cash transfers also show a significant number of automatic programs [70][72] - The report identifies a clear trend towards using price-based benchmarks for indexation, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) being the most common mechanism [79][83]