国君周期论剑|红利资产的跨年解读之二

Group 1: Market Sentiment and Trends - The Politburo meeting's rare statements support market sentiment and stock market liquidity, indicating a phase of market stability with potential for a year-end rebound focused on individual stocks and themes[4] - A decline in risk-free interest rates is anticipated, with a positive outlook on technology and consumer sectors[4] Group 2: Commodity and Sector Insights - U.S. inflation shows stickiness, limiting interest rate cuts in 2025, while domestic demand expectations are bolstered by significant policy signals from key meetings[8] - Coal prices are expected to bottom out between 750-770 RMB/ton by late March to early April 2025, with investment strategies shifting towards stable dividend leaders in the coal sector[9] - The steel sector remains at a bottom level, with expectations for improved industry demand and supply dynamics, maintaining an "overweight" rating[25] Group 3: Policy and Economic Outlook - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the need for more proactive macro policies to expand domestic demand, with a focus on stabilizing the real estate market[18] - The December Politburo meeting continues the policy of "seeking progress while maintaining stability," highlighting the importance of expanding domestic demand[28]