11月社融金融数据点评：银行行业：政府债支撑社融，M1增速继续回升

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [8] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that government bonds continue to support social financing, with M1 growth rate showing signs of recovery [9][10] - In November, social financing increased by 2.34 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 119.7 billion yuan, while the stock of social financing grew by 7.8% year-on-year, remaining stable compared to the previous month [20] - The report indicates that the structure of social financing is heavily influenced by government bonds, which accounted for 56% of the new social financing in November [2][9] Summary by Sections Social Financing - Government bonds contributed significantly to the new social financing, with 1.31 trillion yuan issued in November, an increase of 158.9 billion yuan year-on-year [2] - The new RMB loans amounted to 580 billion yuan in November, a year-on-year decrease of 510 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.7% [3][20] - Off-balance-sheet financing saw an increase of 81.9 billion yuan, while direct financing through corporate bonds reached 242.8 billion yuan, up 109.8 billion yuan year-on-year [2][3] Credit - There was a marginal improvement in long-term loans for households, while corporate credit remains weak [3] - Household loans increased by 270 billion yuan, with long-term loans showing a year-on-year increase of 66.9 billion yuan [3] - Corporate loans saw a significant decline, with new loans of 250 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 572.1 billion yuan [3] Deposits - M1 showed a continued improvement trend, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.7%, but the decline narrowed by 2.4 percentage points [9][17] - In November, M1 increased by 1.75 trillion yuan, with the increase in demand deposits contributing to this growth [9][10] Future Outlook - The report suggests that the banking sector exhibits clear "post-cycle" characteristics, with room for upward valuation [9][10] - The anticipated mainline logic for 2025 includes enhanced value from long-term capital allocation and improved fundamental expectations driving valuation recovery [9][10]