宏观观察2024年第56期（总第568期）：2024年中央经济工作会议精神学习与解读＊——更加积极有为的宏观政策将推动2025年经济稳定增长

Economic Outlook - The central economic work conference acknowledged the achievements of 2024, stating that the economy is "generally stable and progressing" but also highlighted challenges such as insufficient domestic demand and external pressures[3] - The focus for 2025 will be on coordinating market and government roles, supply and demand, and promoting sustained economic recovery[3] Fiscal Policy - Fiscal policy is shifting from "proactive" to "more proactive," with a projected deficit rate exceeding 3.5%[5] - The central government’s leverage ratio was 24.6% as of Q2 2024, significantly lower than major economies like Japan (219.1%) and the US (114.1%)[5] - New special bonds are expected to reach approximately 2 trillion CNY, doubling from 2024, while local government special bonds may increase to around 4.5 trillion CNY, up by 600 billion CNY[5] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy will transition from a "prudent" stance to "moderately accommodative," with expectations for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions exceeding 1 percentage point in 2025[8] - The emphasis will be on stabilizing economic growth while ensuring overall price stability[8] Domestic Demand - "Comprehensively expanding domestic demand" is prioritized as the top task for 2025, reflecting the need to address insufficient internal demand[9] - Policies to boost consumer spending will include increasing income levels for vulnerable groups and expanding the scope of consumption incentives[11] Investment Strategy - The focus will be on improving investment efficiency rather than merely increasing investment scale, with specific support for key projects and urban renewal initiatives[12] Technological Innovation - The conference emphasized the importance of building a modern industrial system and enhancing technological innovation, particularly in foundational research and core technology breakthroughs[13] - There is a need to accelerate the application of new technologies and expand demonstration projects to support emerging industries[16] Trade Policy - The conference highlighted the importance of trade policy in the context of increasing global uncertainties, with a focus on enhancing coordination across various policy areas[18] - Export growth was supported by a 5.4% increase in total exports from January to November 2024, with a significant rise in service trade and green products[24] Real Estate Market - The meeting underscored the importance of stabilizing the real estate market, with plans to implement 1 million urban village and dilapidated housing renovations, potentially driving sales of approximately 2.48 trillion CNY[26] - A new framework for real estate development will be established, focusing on a dynamic adjustment of land supply based on population changes[27]