阿拉伯联合酋长国：2024年第四条磋商新闻稿；员工报告（英）2024

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - The UAE's economic growth remains strong, driven by robust domestic activity, with overall GDP growth of 3.6 percent in 2023 and projected growth of 3.7 percent in 2024 [7][9][57] - Non-hydrocarbon growth has been particularly strong, benefiting from healthy tourism flows and increased activity in construction, manufacturing, and financial services [7][9] - Inflation moderated sharply to 1.6 percent in 2023, with expectations of a rise to 2.2 percent in 2024 [7][61] - The banking sector remains resilient, with strengthened balance sheets and continued credit growth despite policy interest rate hikes [8][12][51] Summary by Sections Recent Macroeconomic Developments - Non-hydrocarbon GDP growth reached 6.2 percent in 2023, while hydrocarbon GDP contracted by 3.1 percent due to OPEC+ production cuts [36] - The general government surplus decreased to 5 percent of GDP in 2023, down from 10 percent in 2022, primarily due to lower public company transfers [41] - Capital inflows have strengthened, supporting an increase in central bank foreign reserves by 9.3 percent of GDP in 2023 [42] Outlook and Risks - GDP is projected to grow by 3.7 percent in 2024, with non-hydrocarbon growth expected at 4.9 percent [57] - Hydrocarbon GDP is expected to grow by 0.2 percent in 2024, with significant growth anticipated in 2025 due to increased OPEC+ quotas [58] - The current account surplus is projected to average 7.6 percent of GDP over the medium term, supported by high oil prices and economic diversification efforts [62] Policy Discussions - Policies should focus on sustainable growth and safeguarding financial stability, including enhancing macro-prudential tools and fiscal frameworks [73] - Continued emphasis on structural reforms to harness digitalization and attract investment is crucial for higher productivity and economic growth [25][73] - The development of harmonized medium-term fiscal and sovereign asset-liability management frameworks is essential for fiscal policy efficiency [17]