宏观周报：本周看什么？养老托育、韩国政局

Group 1: Macroeconomic Focus - The central economic work conference emphasizes the "silver economy" and fertility policies, clarifying the "one old, one young" mainline[4] - China's birth rate has declined from 10.86‰ in 2018 to 6.39‰ in 2023, indicating a significant demographic challenge[17] - The elderly dependency ratio has increased from 17.8% in 2018 to 22.5% in 2023, highlighting the growing pressure of an aging population[17] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - Short-term investment in the bond market should focus on the potential timing of incremental monetary easing[6] - In the stock market, attention should be on further liquidity easing combined with other policy measures[6] - The report suggests monitoring the development opportunities in the infant sector due to potential fertility policy tools like subsidies[4] Group 3: High-Frequency Data Insights - High-frequency data supports sustained high prosperity in transportation, coal, and steel industries, while cultural tourism, construction materials, and non-ferrous metals are awaiting recovery[5] - Daily average steel production has shown a year-on-year increase, indicating a positive trend in industrial production[26] - The average daily sales of passenger cars have increased by 54.52% year-on-year, reflecting the effectiveness of the vehicle replacement policy[29]