金属及金属新材料行业：黄金继续稳步上行

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [6] Core Views - Base metals are expected to experience price fluctuations due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and domestic economic policies supporting demand recovery. The anticipated fiscal policies in 2025 are expected to further boost domestic demand, while industrial metal supply remains weak and electrolytic aluminum costs are high [2][3] - The steel sector is expected to maintain a stable supply-demand balance with slight price increases, although profit margins are projected to continue declining. The recovery of economic policies is expected to restore market expectations [2] - Precious metals, particularly gold, are anticipated to continue their upward trend, supported by rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The market is advised to seize opportunities during price corrections [3] - Energy metals, particularly lithium, are expected to see slight price declines as the market transitions into a seasonal downturn, although the anticipated oversupply in 2025 may limit the extent of price drops [3] Summary by Sections 1. Performance of Non-Ferrous Metals Industry - From December 9 to December 13, the industrial metal index decreased by 0.16%, while the precious metal index increased by 0.89%. The small metal index fell by 1.59%, and the new materials index dropped by 1.90% [26] 2. Metal Prices - Base metals: LME copper price decreased by 0.40% to $9,056.50 per ton, LME aluminum increased by 0.29% to $2,615.00 per ton, and LME lead decreased by 2.56% to $2,013.50 per ton. SHFE copper price increased by 0.08% to ¥74,790.00 per ton [43] - Steel prices: The price of ordinary steel increased by 0.89% to ¥3,760.00 per ton, while iron ore prices decreased by 0.06% to ¥797.00 per ton [43] - Precious metals: COMEX gold rose by 0.41% to $2,665.90 per ounce, while SHFE gold increased by 1.57% to ¥625.60 per gram [43] - Energy metals: Battery-grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 0.65% to ¥76,300.00 per ton, while lithium hydroxide price increased by 0.50% to ¥69,000.00 per ton [43] 3. Macroeconomic Factors - The report highlights the influence of macroeconomic policies and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions on the metals market, indicating a close relationship between economic recovery and metal demand [2][3]