煤炭行业周报（2024年第49期）：沿海电厂日耗恢复至同期，北港库存继续回落，煤价趋势或改善

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [1] Core Viewpoints - Recent market dynamics indicate a weak overall coal price, but power plant daily consumption is recovering, and inventory pressure at northern ports is easing. The CCI5500 thermal coal price index has decreased by 19 RMB/ton to 799 RMB/ton, with domestic port thermal coal prices dropping approximately 20 RMB/ton. However, as temperatures drop, coal demand is expected to improve, leading to a potential stabilization and rebound in coal prices [5][6] - The coal market has been weak since October, particularly for thermal coal, due to high production and imports, as well as relatively warm winter temperatures. However, as winter storage demand increases and supply constraints are expected at the end of December and into January-February, coal prices are anticipated to stabilize and rebound [6][5] - The manufacturing PMI for November was reported at 50.3%, indicating an acceleration in manufacturing expansion, which suggests a positive outlook for coal demand [6] Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - Thermal coal prices are under pressure, with port prices dropping and production areas experiencing price declines. The average price for CCI5500 thermal coal is reported at 790 RMB/ton, down 22 RMB/ton week-on-week. The inventory at major ports has decreased, indicating a potential for price stabilization as demand increases with colder weather [53][60] - The coal mining capacity utilization rate is at 93.6%, with a slight increase week-on-week. Coal inventories at major ports have decreased by 1.4%, while power plant coal inventories have increased slightly [60][63] Industry Viewpoints - The coal market remains weak, particularly for thermal coal, but there are signs of recovery in demand as temperatures drop. The overall sentiment in the market is cautious, with some companies beginning to see positive year-on-year profit growth [6][5] - Key companies to watch include those with stable dividends and low valuations, such as Shaanxi Coal and China Shenhua, as well as those expected to benefit from improving demand [6] Key Companies - Notable companies with strong fundamentals include: - China Shenhua (601088.SH) with a target price of 44.13 RMB/share and a current price of 42.60 RMB/share [10] - Shaanxi Coal (601225.SH) with a target price of 26.90 RMB/share and a current price of 24.61 RMB/share [10] - Yancoal (600188.SH) with a target price of 24.91 RMB/share and a current price of 14.61 RMB/share [10] - Other companies with potential include Huai Bei Mining, Pingmei Shenma, and Shanxi Coking Coal, which are expected to benefit from improving demand and have low price-to-book ratios [6]