宏观专题2011%去杠杆时期的历史比较：谁推动了欧股牛&日股熊？241211

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The divergence in asset price performance between the Eurozone and Japan during low interest rate periods is attributed to differences in risk appetite and asset allocation among market participants [1][10] - The Eurozone experienced a prolonged bull market in equities, while Japan faced a bear market, primarily due to the contrasting behaviors of domestic and foreign investors [1][10] Summary by Sections 1. Divergence of Asset Prices in Low Interest Rate Era - The low interest rate era for the Eurozone began in November 2011, while Japan's started in September 1993, both triggered by economic crises [2][31] - In the Eurozone, both stocks and bonds saw price increases, and real estate prices remained stable, whereas Japan experienced declines in stocks, bonds, and real estate [2][34] 2. Asset Allocation Characteristics Behind Price Divergence - In Japan, foreign investment became the primary source of capital for equities post-1993, but significant outflows from the domestic private sector limited upward momentum in the stock market [3][11] - Conversely, in the Eurozone, both foreign and domestic investors increased their equity allocations, leading to a sustained bull market [3][11] a. Structure of Equity Holders - Eurozone investors, including residents and financial institutions, collectively increased their equity holdings, while Japanese non-financial institutions reduced theirs significantly [45][50] - The Eurozone saw a rise in equity fund sizes, from approximately €1.7 trillion in 2011 to over €3 trillion by early 2015, while Japan's equity funds shrank during the same period [66][67] b. Private Sector Risk Preferences - Eurozone residents increased their equity investments to over 10% of their financial assets post-2011, while Japanese residents maintained a low equity investment ratio of around 5% [53][60] - Japanese residents shifted towards cash and insurance products, with cash investments rising to over 60% of their financial allocations [60][64] c. Public Fund Dynamics - Japanese public funds saw a significant shift towards fixed income assets, while Eurozone public funds expanded their equity holdings [66][67] 3. Economic Environment Differences - The economic bubble in the Eurozone was less severe than in Japan, leading to different recovery paths post-crisis [8][11] - Japan's asset bubble burst had a nationwide impact, while the Eurozone's crisis was more localized, allowing stronger economies like Germany and France to stabilize quickly [8][11]