宏观观察2024年第55期（总第567期）：如何看待“适度宽松”的货币政策＊

Monetary Policy Overview - The Central Political Bureau proposed to implement a "moderately loose" monetary policy for the second time in history, following a similar stance in 2009-2010[6] - The aim is to maintain liquidity and align social financing scale and money supply growth with economic growth and price level expectations[4] Economic Challenges - Social retail sales grew by 3.5% year-on-year from January to October 2024, a decline of 3.4 percentage points compared to the previous year[10] - Fixed asset investment growth slowed to 3.4% in the same period, with real estate investment down by 10.3%, worsening by 1 percentage point year-on-year[15] - Exports increased by 5.3% year-on-year, but face challenges from global economic slowdowns and trade protectionism[16] Policy Measures - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has reduced the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 1 percentage point in two instances, releasing over 2 trillion yuan in liquidity[26] - The average loan interest rates for enterprises and personal housing loans fell to 3.51% and 3.31%, respectively, marking historical lows[26] Future Projections - In 2025, the expected RRR reduction could reach 1-2 percentage points, with policy interest rates projected to decline by 40-60 basis points[31] - New social financing is anticipated to increase significantly, particularly in infrastructure and consumption sectors, with a focus on stabilizing the real estate market[35] Capital Market Support - New monetary policy tools were introduced to support capital markets, including a 500 billion yuan swap facility and a 300 billion yuan stock repurchase loan[38] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 12.3% year-to-date as of November 2024, reflecting positive market responses to these measures[40]