化工新材料行业周报：市场担忧俄罗斯石油受欧美新一轮制裁，油价应声上涨

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Outperform" rating for the chemical and new materials sector [7]. Core Viewpoints - Concerns over Russian oil facing new sanctions from the West have led to a rise in oil prices, with WTI crude futures increasing by 5.84% and Brent crude by 4.64% from December 6 to December 13 [10]. - The OPEC+ has extended its voluntary production cut agreement until the end of Q1 2025, aiming to alleviate supply surplus pressures [10]. - The demand for refrigerants is strong, driven by pre-holiday stocking by companies, with prices for R32 and R134a rising by 1.25% and 1.27% respectively [11]. - The semiconductor materials sector is expected to see an upward trend due to inventory destocking and improving end-market fundamentals [14]. Summary by Sections Chemical New Materials Market Overview - As of December 13, 2024, the basic chemical index closed at 3,483.06 points, down 0.09% from the previous week, while the new materials index fell by 2.32% to 3,105.85 points [24]. - The oil and gas sector indices showed a decline, with the petroleum chemical index down 0.24% [24]. Petroleum Chemistry - The report highlights the geopolitical risks affecting oil prices, with ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East providing short-term support for oil prices [10]. - The IEA forecasts a global oil supply surplus exceeding 1 million barrels per day next year, despite OPEC+ maintaining current production policies [10]. Fluorine Chemicals - The report notes that the demand for refrigerants is bolstered by strong domestic appliance and automotive sectors, with a significant increase in air conditioning production expected [11][60]. - The prices of key refrigerants are expected to continue rising due to tight supply and strong demand [11]. Semiconductor Materials - The semiconductor materials sector is anticipated to benefit from a cyclical upturn and domestic substitution trends, with companies like Nanda Optoelectronics and Shanghai Xinyang being highlighted for potential investment [14]. Fertilizers - The report indicates strong cost support for phosphates and ammonium fertilizers, with winter storage demand expected to drive prices [64]. Chemical Fiber - The report mentions that polyester prices are at low levels, leading to potential production cuts to maintain price stability [66].