宏观经济宏观月报：11月国内供给保持韧性但需求偏弱

Economic Growth - In November, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increased by 5.4% year-on-year, a slight rise of 0.1 percentage points from October[1] - The total retail sales of consumer goods in November reached 43,763 billion yuan, growing by 3.0% year-on-year, a decline of 1.8 percentage points from October[1] - From January to November, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 465,839 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.3%, down 0.1 percentage points from January to October[1] Employment and Unemployment - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in November was 5.0%, unchanged from the previous month, and down 0.1 percentage points from the same month last year[1] - The unemployment rate in major cities also remained at 5.0%, indicating stable employment conditions but slightly weaker compared to pre-pandemic levels[18] Investment and Consumption - In November, fixed asset investment year-on-year growth was 2.4%, down 1.0 percentage points from October, indicating weak investment momentum[33] - The year-on-year growth of social retail sales in November was unexpectedly low, likely influenced by the earlier timing of the 2025 Spring Festival[13] Trade and Exports - The total import and export value in November was 37,506 billion yuan, with exports at 22,217 billion yuan, growing by 5.8%, while imports fell by 4.7%[1] - The export growth rate in November significantly declined by 5.4 percentage points compared to October, reflecting weaker trade conditions[48] Inflation and Price Trends - In November, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-year was 0.2%, continuing a slight decline, primarily due to falling food prices[57] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) year-on-year decline narrowed to -2.5%, indicating a stabilization in industrial prices[70]