消费分化仍需补贴加力，化债不是扩张基建降温

Group 1 - Retail sales growth declined primarily due to the misalignment of promotional periods, while the demand for durable goods stimulated by consumption subsidies remained strong. In November, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.0% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.8 percentage points, mainly due to the timing of promotions and new product launches [4][10][27] - The four categories of durable consumer goods related to real estate showed continuous improvement driven by national and local fiscal subsidies, with year-on-year growth rates for automobiles and home appliances reaching 6.6% and 22.2%, respectively [4][10][27] - Non-real estate-related durable goods and non-durable discretionary items experienced temporary declines due to early promotional activities and delayed new product launches, with significant drops in categories such as communication equipment, textiles, and cosmetics [4][10][27] Group 2 - Fixed asset investment growth did not continue its previous upward trend but instead fell by 1.1 percentage points to 2.3% year-on-year in November. Real estate development investment and manufacturing investment saw year-on-year changes of -11.6% and 9.3%, respectively [10][18][27] - The main drag on investment growth came from the infrastructure sector during the debt reduction phase, with broad infrastructure investment growth declining by 1.9 percentage points to 7.3% year-on-year [10][18][27] - The decline in infrastructure investment growth indicates that the primary goal of the current debt reduction is to alleviate the burden on enterprises affected by hidden debts, rather than to expand government financing for investment [10][18][27] Group 3 - Residential sales turned positive for the first time in 17 months in November, with a year-on-year increase of 5.9% in sales area and 4.7% in sales amount, driven by policy relaxation and a low base effect [18][27] - However, the improvement in demand is moderate and its sustainability remains to be observed, as new construction and completion areas continued to decline significantly [18][27] - In November, housing prices in first-tier cities performed better than in second and third-tier cities, indicating that the policy relaxation primarily released previously restricted demand in first-tier cities [18][27] Group 4 - The improvement in domestic demand, particularly for durable goods, has led to a continuous recovery in manufacturing production, with industrial added value rising by 0.1 percentage points to 5.4% year-on-year in November [25][27] - The manufacturing sector, driven by demand for durable goods, saw an increase in added value, particularly in automotive manufacturing, black metals, and chemical products [25][27] - However, external uncertainties are increasing, and sectors sensitive to exports, such as computer communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing, experienced a decline [25][27] Group 5 - The economic data from November indicates that consumption subsidies and new real estate demand relaxation policies are leading to stronger demand for durable goods and a phase of improvement in real estate demand [27] - The current debt reduction phase aims to improve the efficiency of social debt leverage rather than to initiate a new round of government financing expansion [27] - Looking ahead to 2025, external risks may rise rapidly, and the net export contribution to economic growth may significantly decline, emphasizing the importance of expanding domestic demand and consumption [27]