财政数据点评：内需税收循环有改善迹象

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that there are signs of improvement in the internal demand tax revenue cycle, driven by enhanced consumption and increased non-tax revenue, with November's general public budget revenue reaching 1.2 trillion, a year-on-year growth rate of 11.0%, marking the highest monthly growth since June 2023 [2][3] - The main driving factors include increased support from non-tax revenue, which contributed 6.6 percentage points to growth, and the implementation of consumption subsidies in October, which improved the revenue and profit of related enterprises, leading to a significant year-on-year increase in corporate income tax and value-added tax by 37.0% and 1.4%, respectively [2][3] - In terms of expenditure, the general public budget spending in November decreased by 6.6 percentage points to a growth rate of 3.8%, indicating a cooling off from the previous months' high growth, with significant categories such as agriculture, forestry, water, and transportation showing a decline [2][3] Group 2 - The government fund budget revenue saw a year-on-year decline of 14.9%, with land transfer revenue dropping by 19.7%, reflecting a policy focus on controlling new supply and revitalizing existing stock in the real estate sector, which may lead to prolonged low revenue from land transfers [2][3] - The report highlights that the issuance of special bonds is nearing completion, with the focus on debt replacement rather than expanding investment, leading to a significant drop in government fund budget expenditure by 41.6% year-on-year to 6.3% [2][3] - Looking ahead, the report anticipates that fiscal expansion in 2025 will be achieved through increasing the deficit ratio, expanding special bonds, and issuing ultra-long-term special government bonds, with a projected fiscal deficit ratio of 3.6%-4.0% [2][3]