宏观周报：经济继续呈现外强内弱格局

Economic Overview - The domestic economy continues to show a pattern of external strength and internal weakness, with exports remaining resilient while domestic demand indicators are weak[1] - November exports increased by 6.7% year-on-year, while cumulative exports rose by 5.4%[11] - November imports saw a decline of 3.9% year-on-year, indicating ongoing weakness in domestic demand[13] Financial Indicators - The M1 money supply growth rate improved from -6.1% in October to -3.7% in November, marking two consecutive months of recovery[20] - The total social financing (TSF) in November was 23,357 billion CNY, with government bonds being the primary contributor[24] Real Estate Market - New home sales have shown a notable recovery in first and third-tier cities, with first-tier city sales surpassing 2021 levels[45] - The second-hand housing market is experiencing a decline in sentiment, with listing prices dropping across all city tiers[45] Bond Market - The bond market remains strong, with the 10-year government bond yield falling below 1.8% and the 30-year yield approaching 2.0%[50] - The sentiment in the bond market is bullish, driven by expectations of a moderately loose monetary policy[50] Interest Rate Expectations - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December have risen to over 90%[52] - Despite a slight increase in the U.S. CPI, the core inflation remains stable, supporting the case for a rate cut[52]