电子行业覆铜板投资攻守兼备：周期启动，成长创新正当时

Industry Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained Rating) [1] Core Views - The CCL (Copper Clad Laminate) industry presents both cyclical and growth investment opportunities, with cyclicality being the dominant factor [1][4] - The industry exhibits strong alpha opportunities due to high barriers to entry, including formula expertise, customer relationships, and resource control [1][5] - The cyclical recovery has begun, with downstream demand expected to sustain growth, supporting the industry's upward trend [1][7] - Capital expenditures and technological advancements are driving CCL upgrades, particularly in high-speed CCL and other innovative segments [1][8] Cyclical and Growth Opportunities - The CCL industry is characterized by cyclicality, with historical price increases of 9% in 2017 and 32% in 2021 during peak cycles [1][4] - Growth opportunities are driven by innovation, particularly in niche segments such as 5G and AI, with companies like Shengyi Technology and Taoglas benefiting from these trends [1][4] - The industry's cyclicality is neutral to strong, with demand following macroeconomic trends and supply expansion taking approximately 2 years [1][169] - Growth is weaker overall but significant in specific areas, with innovation often driven by customer requirements rather than the CCL manufacturers themselves [1][204] Industry Barriers and Competitive Landscape - The CCL industry has high barriers to entry, including formula expertise, customer relationships, and control over key raw materials like copper foil, resin, and glass fiber [1][5][215] - The top 5 companies (CR5) account for over 50% of the market, and the frequency of leadership changes is low, indicating strong alpha opportunities for dominant players [1][207][210] - Companies with strong customer relationships and resource control, such as Shengyi Technology and Taoglas, are well-positioned to capitalize on cyclical and growth opportunities [1][215][217] Cyclical Recovery and Downstream Demand - The CCL industry has shown signs of recovery, with A-share CCL companies reporting revenue growth of 3%, 25%, and 5% in the first three quarters of 2024, respectively [1][7] - Downstream demand for smartphones, PCs, and servers is expected to grow, with IDC forecasting a 3% CAGR for smartphones and an 8% CAGR for servers from 2024 to 2028 [1][7][254] - The recovery is supported by increased capital expenditures from cloud computing providers, which are expected to drive demand for high-end CCL products [1][7][254] Technological Upgrades and Innovation - The CCL industry is undergoing significant upgrades, particularly in high-speed CCL, driven by advancements in 18+ layer boards, substrate packaging, and HDI boards [1][8][272] - High-speed CCL, which grew by 6% in 2023 despite an overall industry decline of 16%, is expected to be a key growth area in the coming years [1][8][272] - Innovations in AI servers, AI PCs, and AI smartphones are creating new demand for advanced CCL materials, such as ultra-low loss and super ultra-low loss CCL [1][8][272] Investment Recommendations - The current period is seen as a critical investment moment for the CCL industry, with both cyclical and growth drivers in play [1][9] - Investors are advised to focus on companies with strong alpha characteristics, particularly those with expertise in high-speed CCL and other innovative segments [1][9][229]