2025年工业金属年度策略：供需基本面持续改善，财政扩张背景下关注上游资源品

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment outlook for the aluminum and copper sectors, indicating a return to supply-demand imbalance for aluminum and a tight balance for copper in 2025 [2][3]. Core Views - The aluminum sector is expected to return to a state of supply shortage in 2025, driven by demand growth that outpaces supply recovery, with a focus on companies that can benefit from a reversal in profit trends [3][4]. - The copper market is projected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance in 2025, with prices expected to fluctuate between $9,500 and $11,500 per ton, influenced by macroeconomic factors [3][4]. Summary by Sections Aluminum - Supply constraints are anticipated to persist, with a return to supply-demand imbalance in 2025 as demand grows faster than supply recovery [3][4]. - The cost side is expected to decline significantly in the first half of 2025, leading to a recovery in profits for the aluminum industry [3][4]. - Domestic aluminum production capacity is nearing its limit, with an expected increase of 45,000 tons in 2025, while overseas supply is constrained by energy prices [3][4]. - The demand structure for aluminum is shifting, with traditional real estate demand decreasing and new demand from photovoltaic and electric vehicles increasing [3][4]. Copper - The copper market is expected to experience a tight balance in 2025, with a projected supply of 28.4 million tons and demand of 28.44 million tons, resulting in a supply gap of 40,000 tons [3][4]. - Price fluctuations for copper are anticipated to remain between $9,500 and $11,500 per ton, influenced by macroeconomic conditions and demand from key countries [3][4]. - The report highlights that the supply sentiment may react more strongly than the actual fundamentals, with demand primarily driven by China, India, and the United States [3][4]. Investment Strategies - For aluminum, the report suggests focusing on companies with a reversal logic in profitability, such as Yun Aluminum and Shenhuo, and those with growth potential like Tianshan Aluminum [4]. - In the copper sector, attention is drawn to companies with significant resource releases and high barriers to processing, such as Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum [4].