Monetary Policy and Market Trends - The Central Political Bureau and the Central Economic Work Conference have indicated that China will implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2024, aligning with previous supportive monetary policy stances[5] - Market expectations for a loose monetary policy have risen, leading to a rapid decline in long-term interest rates, with the 30-year government bond yield dipping below 2%[5] Economic Indicators - In November 2024, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% year-on-year, while it fell by 0.6% month-on-month; the average CPI increase from January to November was 0.3% compared to the previous year[6] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial producers decreased by 2.5% year-on-year in November, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1%[7] Credit and Financing - In November, new RMB loans amounted to 580 billion yuan, significantly below the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 945 billion yuan, and a year-on-year decrease of 510 billion yuan[9] - Total social financing (TSF) for November was 2.34 trillion yuan, also below the expected 2.59 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.197 trillion yuan[9] Trade Performance - In November, China's exports increased by 6.7% year-on-year to $312.31 billion, while imports fell by 3.9% to $214.87 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of $97.44 billion[11]
宏观周报：适度宽松的货币政策 社融信贷均不及预期
Hua Lian Qi Huo·2024-12-17 00:21