国内观察：2024年11月经济数据：内需修复并非一蹴而就

Economic Data Summary - In November, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.0% year-on-year, down from 4.8% in the previous month[1] - Fixed asset investment accumulated a year-on-year growth of 3.3%, slightly lower than the previous month's 3.4%[1] - The industrial added value for large-scale enterprises rose by 5.4% year-on-year, a slight increase from 5.3% in October[1] Key Economic Insights - Major economic indicators, except for industrial production, showed a decline in November, indicating a need for policy support to boost domestic demand[1] - The central economic work conference emphasized the importance of stabilizing prices, which will influence the nominal GDP growth rate[1] - The monetary policy is shifting from "prudent" to "moderately loose," while fiscal policy is expected to be more proactive[1] Sector Performance - Retail sales growth was weaker than seasonal trends, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.16%, compared to a five-year average of 0.54%[1] - The catering sector performed better than retail goods, with a year-on-year growth of 4.0% compared to 2.8% for retail goods[1] - Real estate sales showed improvement, with the sales area of commercial housing turning positive for the first time since April 2023, although the cumulative decline narrowed to -14.3%[1] Investment Trends - Manufacturing investment growth slightly declined to 9.3%, while infrastructure investment also saw a minor drop to 9.8%[1] - Equipment updates continue to support manufacturing investment, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 15.8% in equipment purchases over the first 11 months[1] - Broad infrastructure investment growth remained stable, with narrow infrastructure investment slightly decreasing to 3.35%[1] Risks and Outlook - Potential risks include the possibility of policy implementation falling short of expectations and ongoing downward pressure in the real estate market[4] - The U.S. economic recession poses additional risks to the domestic economy[4]