2025年货币政策展望：两种情形下的降息路径推演

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes a significant shift in monetary policy framework in 2024, characterized as a "paradigm shift" with non-linear changes dominating the landscape [5][60]. - The report outlines that the monetary policy implementation will be the strongest since 2016, with notable reductions in key rates: 7-day OMO by 30 basis points, 5-year LPR by 60 basis points, and reserve requirements by 125-150 basis points [5]. - A new interest rate corridor has been introduced, with a width of only 70 basis points, which may further narrow, indicating a shift towards a more price-oriented monetary policy [5][15]. Group 2 - The report discusses the transition from a supply constraint to a demand constraint in monetary policy, highlighting the need for a faster shift towards price-based tools due to the current demand constraints [21]. - It notes that the effectiveness of monetary policy is increasingly reliant on price signals rather than the quantity of money, as the broad money supply is no longer the main constraint [21]. - The report suggests that the "solid foundation and nurturing" approach aims to support the overall asset-liability balance sheet repair, with a focus on asset price recovery and managing liability costs through LPR reductions [24][56]. Group 3 - The report indicates that the monetary policy in 2025 will focus on maintaining a stable exchange rate while ensuring a reasonable level of liquidity supply, reflecting a balance between quantity and price easing [60]. - It highlights that the relationship between the US and China interest rate differentials and exchange rates will be crucial, with a 100 basis point change in the differential corresponding to approximately 0.25 CNY/USD in exchange rate adjustments [42]. - The report anticipates that if trade tensions escalate, the exchange rate will face significant pressure, necessitating careful management of monetary policy to mitigate impacts [49].