农林牧渔行业报告：猪价止跌，11月产能增速放缓

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [6][4]. Core Viewpoints - The pig price has stabilized, and the production capacity growth has slowed down in November. The agricultural sector has rebounded, primarily due to previous adjustments and the defensive nature of the sector. Consumption-related sub-sectors such as animal health (pets), agricultural product processing, and aquaculture have led the gains [6][18]. - The report suggests that the slow growth in production capacity should not lead to overly pessimistic expectations for pig prices next year. The current production capacity is expected to grow moderately, and the market confidence in pig prices may recover if the production capacity continues to grow slowly in the fourth quarter [25][22]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The agricultural sector index increased by 1.98%, ranking 8th among 31 primary industries in terms of growth. The rebound is attributed to prior adjustments and the sector's defensive characteristics, alongside expectations of consumption-boosting policies [16][18]. 2. Livestock Industry Chain Tracking 2.1 Swine: Price Stabilization and Slow Capacity Growth - The current pig price is around 15.8 CNY/kg, showing signs of stabilization due to seasonal consumption increases. However, there is still supply pressure as producers are actively selling [22][7]. - The average profit for self-bred pigs is approximately 132 CNY per head, down by 40 CNY from the previous week, while the loss for purchased piglets is about 96 CNY per head, an increase in loss by 49 CNY [23][24]. - The production capacity growth in November was slower, with a slight increase in breeding stock. The report indicates that the production capacity is expected to recover slowly, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.20% in breeding stock as of October [24][25]. 2.2 Broilers: Entering a Stopping Period with Uncertainty in Imports - The price of broiler chicks in Yantai is 4.15 CNY per chick, a slight decrease, while the average price for broiler chickens remains stable at 3.75 CNY per jin. The industry is entering a stopping period, which may affect pricing [38][40]. - There is a concern regarding the suspension of imports from the US and New Zealand, which could impact supply if the suspension lasts for an extended period. Domestic breeds may fill some gaps, but foreign breeds are still preferred in the market [40][38]. 3. Planting Industry Chain Tracking - Sugar prices have slightly rebounded, with the price of white sugar in Liuzhou at 6170 CNY/ton, an increase of 80 CNY/ton from the previous week [45]. - The price of Brazilian soybeans has decreased by 4.0% to 3459 CNY/ton, while cotton prices have adjusted to 15078 CNY/ton, down by 0.4% [48][45].