宏观周报12月第三周：中央政治局会议定调积极

Market Overview - The market experienced a significant increase with an average weekly trading volume of 1.9329 trillion yuan, up 208.4 billion yuan from the previous week[34]. - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.33%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.69%[34]. Economic Indicators - In November, China's exports (in USD) grew by 6.7% year-on-year, down from 12.7% in the previous month, while imports fell by 3.9%[44]. - The trade surplus for November was $97.44 billion, compared to $95.72 billion in the previous month[44]. Monetary Policy - The Central Political Bureau's meeting indicated a shift towards a more proactive monetary policy, suggesting a significant likelihood of interest rate cuts in the coming year[15]. - The meeting emphasized the need for "appropriate monetary policy" and "expansionary fiscal policy," with expectations for the deficit ratio to rise to around 4% next year[43]. Financial Data - In November, new RMB loans amounted to 580 billion yuan, significantly below the expected 920.8 billion yuan[51]. - The social financing scale was 2.3357 trillion yuan, also below the forecast of 2.8967 trillion yuan[51]. Inflation and Prices - The U.S. November CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year, matching expectations, while the PPI increased by 3.0%, above the forecast of 2.6%[15]. - The inflation data in the U.S. remains resilient but does not pose immediate obstacles for the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts[15].