天风证券：晨会集萃-20241217

Group 1: Macro Insights - The report indicates that the market is in a "calm period" before Trump's inauguration, with significant uncertainty surrounding his policies on tariffs and immigration, which will only become clearer after he takes office [1][19] - The Federal Reserve is facing challenges in navigating monetary policy amidst limited space for further rate cuts, especially with the market pricing in a 25 basis point cut in December [1][19] - Inflation will be influenced by various uncertainties related to Trump's policies, but clarity will only emerge post-inauguration [1][19] Group 2: Fixed Income Market - The overall market sentiment is high, with strong buying power observed, particularly in long-duration credit bonds [2][24] - The 10-year government bond yield has decreased by 17.7 basis points, marking a significant drop not seen since early 2020 and April 2018 [2][24] - There is a high likelihood of continued decline in credit bond yields and spreads, with expectations for 3-5 year credit bond yields to reach 1.35%-1.70% [2][24] Group 3: Industry Trends - The report highlights a "strong expectation, weak reality" phase in the market, with significant volatility in thematic trading, particularly in technology and consumer sectors [3][20] - Industries such as petroleum, light manufacturing, home appliances, and real estate are showing an upward trend, while sectors like electric equipment, machinery, pharmaceuticals, and non-bank financials are trending downward [3][20] Group 4: Company-Specific Insights - Huayuan Bio is positioned as a global leader in the vitamin D3 industry, with a complete production chain from cholesterol to vitamin D3, ensuring supply chain stability [25][26] - The company has reported a revenue of 938 million yuan and a net profit of 241 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, with expectations for continued growth [25][26] - Qingdao Port is recognized for its strong financial performance, with a return on equity (ROE) of 13% and a consistent dividend payout ratio of 44% from 2018 to 2023, indicating significant investment value [27][28]