银行业复苏的征途系列二：宽松预期下如何展望银行息差？

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the banking sector [10]. Core Insights - The report anticipates a non-linear decline in deposit and interbank liability costs by 2025, with current policy effects yet to be fully realized. If existing policies are effective, the decline in deposit and liability costs will sufficiently offset the impact of loan interest rate cuts [5][7]. - The current monetary easing cycle is expected to stabilize net interest margins, with a symmetric reduction in both deposit and loan rates, controlled pacing, and reserve requirement ratio cuts supporting this stability [7][8]. Summary by Sections Current Policy Impact - By 2025, deposit and liability costs are projected to decline significantly, with the average official rates for one-year, three-year, and five-year fixed deposits dropping by 42 basis points to 1.38% as of July and October 2023. The average interest rate for fixed deposits in state-owned banks was 2.48% in H1 2024, which is expected to decrease to at least 1.78% [5][6]. - Retail demand deposit rates have been reduced to 0.1%, and corporate demand deposits are being regulated, leading to an estimated overall improvement in net interest margins by approximately 35 basis points [5][6]. Interbank Liabilities - The high interest rates on interbank deposits, primarily due to strong bargaining power from large clients, are expected to decrease by 20 to 40 basis points, improving net interest margins by about 2 basis points [6][7]. - The issuance rates of interbank certificates of deposit have also been declining, with a projected reduction of 60 basis points improving net interest margins by another 2 basis points [6][7]. Loan Rates - Under new policies, the yield on existing mortgage loans is expected to drop to around 3.3%, a decrease of over 70 basis points compared to H1 2024. Corporate loans and non-mortgage retail loans are projected to decrease by 35 basis points [6][7]. - Overall, the impact of declining asset yields on net interest margins is estimated to be around 35 basis points [7]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that while the asset side's drag on net interest margins may be less than the improvement from the liability side, actual loan rate cuts may exceed policy expectations due to weak demand. The anticipated year-on-year decline in net interest margins by 2025 is expected to be controlled within 10 basis points [7][8]. - The banking sector's core advantages in 2025 will remain low valuations, high dividends, and low holdings, with valuation recovery not constrained by market risk appetite [8]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on undervalued bank stocks with high dividend yields, particularly highlighting China Merchants Bank, state-owned banks, and regional banks like Hangzhou Bank that exhibit strong PB-ROE advantages [8].