2024年11月美国CPI点评：住房通胀放缓，提振降息预期

Inflation Data - November CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations, while the previous value was 2.6%[3] - Core CPI also matched expectations, rising by 3.3% year-on-year, consistent with the previous value[3] - Month-on-month CPI rose by 0.3%, up from the previous 0.2%, indicating a slight rebound[3] Price Trends - Energy prices rebounded slightly, with a month-on-month increase from 0.0% to +0.2%, while energy service prices decreased from +1.0% to -0.1%[4] - Food prices continued to rise, with a month-on-month increase from +0.2% to +0.4%[4] - Core goods prices increased from 0.0% to +0.3%, with clothing prices turning positive from -1.5% to +0.2%[5] Market Expectations - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has risen to 94%, with a 75% chance of pausing rate cuts in January[6] - The Federal Reserve is likely to continue rate cuts in December, influenced by the rebound in unemployment and inflation data[6] - Long-term uncertainty remains regarding inflation pressures from potential policy changes under the new administration[6]