食品饮料行业月度聚焦202412：浅谈消费券成果

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [4] Core Insights - Policy stimulus boosts confidence and market sentiment is recovering. The recent Central Economic Work Conference prioritized "boosting consumption, improving investment efficiency, and expanding domestic demand," leading to various local dining consumption policies that are expected to release further potential in the dining sector. Supply chain companies in the dining industry play a crucial role in linking upstream and downstream, and improvements in domestic demand will have a significant impact on them, likely following a path of "short-term volume increase - mid-term efficiency optimization - long-term structural upgrade" [1][24][50] - The dining industry is undergoing structural adjustments, presenting new opportunities in the supply chain. Over the past decade, the dining industry has experienced rapid growth, branding, and chain development. However, in 2023, factors such as slow recovery in consumer demand and economic cycle changes have led to a slowdown in overall dining scale growth, creating new competitive dynamics. The industry is currently at a cyclical low point, but policy stimulus is expected to bring new opportunities [1][24][34] Monthly Focus - The dining market is showing signs of recovery, with policy stimulus enhancing consumer confidence. The issuance of consumption vouchers has a multiplier effect, significantly boosting dining consumption. For instance, during the issuance period in Shanghai, offline dining consumption increased by 11.4% year-on-year [25][26][28] - The dining supply chain companies are expected to benefit directly from the recovery of dining enterprises, with short inventory cycles and high turnover efficiency allowing for quick order responses [50] Market Review - In November, the food and beverage sector outperformed the market by 1.7 percentage points, with a 2.4% increase in the sector overall. The sub-sectors of leisure food and non-liquor beverages saw significant gains, while the liquor sector experienced smaller increases [2][97] - The valuation of the food and beverage sector is at historical lows, with the PE (ttm) at 21.62X, in the 17th percentile since 2010, and the PB (lf) at 4.57X, in the 33rd percentile since 2010 [114] Fundamental Tracking - The overall retail sales in November increased by 3.0% year-on-year, with essential consumer goods showing varied performance. The food and beverage retail sales saw a 10.1% increase for grain and oil products, while beverage sales declined by 4.3% [124] - The liquor industry entered its off-season in November, with prices showing slight recovery. The average price of high-end liquor has increased, indicating potential for recovery in the sector [131] Investment Recommendations - For the liquor sector, companies like Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Gujing Gongjiu are core recommendations, while attention should be given to leading companies like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye for their allocation value. In the consumer goods sector, companies such as Tianwei Food, Angel Yeast, and Yili Group are recommended, with a focus on their competitive landscape and product channel expansion [152]