公用事业行业深度跟踪：利率下行促进公用事业化，煤价回落彰显转型的“气”机

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the decline in interest rates promotes the utility sector's transformation, with falling coal prices highlighting the potential for a shift towards natural gas [2][19]. - The report anticipates that the valuation of utilities will improve due to the bond-like characteristics of the sector, especially as the ten-year government bond yield drops below 2% [19]. - The report outlines a three-point outlook for the utility sector, focusing on the impact of coal prices, supply-demand dynamics, and the upcoming results of long-term electricity price agreements [2][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Interest Rate Decline and Utility Valuation - The report discusses the historical correlation between the stock price of Changjiang Electric and government bond yields, noting that a decline in interest rates has historically led to significant stock price increases [19]. - The report highlights that Changjiang Electric's stock price has shown resilience and growth during periods of declining interest rates, benefiting from stable dividends and a strong cash flow [19][24]. 2. 2025 Investment Strategy: Focus on Natural Gas - The report identifies a potential investment opportunity driven by natural gas, particularly with the expected release of global LNG capacity from 2025 to 2030 [30]. - It notes that the current market conditions suggest a potential decline in natural gas prices, which could lead to a decrease in coal prices as well [30][34]. 3. Policy Review and Industry Data Tracking - The report mentions that multiple provinces have released electricity trading plans, which could impact market dynamics [8]. - It tracks high-frequency data indicating stability in domestic and international coal prices, with a noted decrease in coastal power plant load [8]. 4. Key Company Announcements and Sector Performance - The report provides updates on key companies within the sector, including Huadian International and Longyuan Power, and notes that the sector's valuation is currently at a low point compared to historical levels, presenting a potential opportunity for revaluation [8]. 5. Focus on Specific Companies - The report highlights several companies to watch, including Anhui Energy, Zhejiang Energy, and China General Nuclear Power, all rated as "Buy" with specific price targets and earnings forecasts [4].