社零延续弱复苏，政策发力值得期待

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the consumer discretionary sector [1]. Core Insights - The retail sales in November continued a weak recovery, with a total of 4.38 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, although the growth rate decreased by 1.8 percentage points month-on-month. This is attributed to the earlier timing of the Double Eleven shopping festival [1]. - The report anticipates that the government's policies aimed at stabilizing the economy and promoting consumption will significantly boost domestic demand, placing it as a top priority for economic work in 2025 [1]. - The report highlights strong performance in categories such as home appliances and furniture, driven by supportive policies in the real estate sector [1]. Summary by Sections Retail Performance - In November, the restaurant and retail sectors saw revenue growth of 4.0% and 2.8% year-on-year, respectively, with the growth rates improving due to lower base effects and consumption promotion policies [1]. - Online retail sales of physical goods decreased by 2.6% in November, primarily due to the earlier Double Eleven event [1]. Category Insights - Essential consumption remained stable, with food and daily necessities growing by 10.1% and 1.3% year-on-year, while optional categories like home appliances and automobiles saw increases of 22.2% and 6.6% [1]. - The report notes a decline in cosmetics and footwear categories, with year-on-year decreases of 26.4% and 4.5%, respectively, attributed to the impact of the Double Eleven promotions [1]. Policy Impact - The report emphasizes that the government's focus on expanding domestic demand and implementing consumption-specific actions will likely lead to a positive trend in the consumer sector's fundamentals and valuation recovery in the coming year [1]. Recommended Companies - The report lists several companies with "Buy" ratings, including: - Pop Mart (9992 HK) with a target price of 105.00 HKD [3]. - Miniso (9896 HK) with a target price of 51.21 HKD [5]. - Giant Bio (2367 HK) with a target price of 59.89 HKD [6]. - Proya (603605 CH) with a target price of 143.40 CNY [11]. - Aimeike (300896 CH) with a target price of 227.00 CNY [11]. - Shunmei (2145 HK) with a target price of 59.93 HKD [11]. - Marubi (603983 CH) with a target price of 34.29 CNY [11]. - Laopuhuang (6181 HK) with a target price of 237.00 HKD [11]. - Atour (ATAT US) with a target price of 38.62 USD [11]. - Haidilao (6862 HK) with a target price of 17.80 HKD [11]. - Yum China (9987 HK) with a target price of 472.48 HKD [11]. - Huazhu Group (1179 HK) with a target price of 37.71 HKD [11].