广义财政视角看经济和市场

Fiscal Deficit Analysis - The fiscal deficit is categorized into three levels, with each level showing a decreasing efficiency in driving marginal growth, likely due to diminishing returns on investment and constraints on local government financing[2]. - The transmission sequence from fiscal deficit to economic growth is summarized as "two accounts deficit → off-budget deficit → (residents and enterprises) wide credit → economic growth"[2][20]. - Different types of fiscal spending have structural differences in their impact on the economy, with infrastructure spending showing a weakening effect while social spending has gained relevance post-pandemic[3][22]. Market Impact - Fiscal deficit expansion generally boosts the stock market due to liquidity easing and positive policy expectations, with a notable response occurring early in the expansion phase[4][30]. - The bond market shows weak synchronization with fiscal deficits, and a trend reversal in bond yields will depend on price signals and financing demand[4][30]. - The expected budget deficit rate for next year is around 4%, with the broad fiscal deficit potentially reaching 14 trillion yuan, indicating a significant increase from the previous year[5][36]. Economic Outlook - The anticipated increase in fiscal deficits is expected to drive economic growth by approximately 1.0 to 1.5 percentage points, although the effects may not be fully realized within the year due to transmission lags[5][39]. - The broad fiscal expansion is likely to support liquidity and maintain a favorable policy environment, but the actual impact will depend on external liquidity and economic fundamentals[5][39]. - Risks include the possibility that fiscal policy may not meet expectations and that there may be obstacles in the transmission of policy effects to the economy[6][40].