交通运输行业周报：中央经济工作会议学习笔记，深化国企改革，关注顺周期龙头估值修复

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation and storage industry [5] Core Views - The Central Economic Work Conference signals macroeconomic policy benefits, emphasizing reform and technological innovation, which is expected to positively impact the transportation sector [2][3] - The ongoing deepening of state-owned enterprise reforms is anticipated to enhance the long-term value of high-dividend state-owned enterprises in the transportation sector [2] - The report highlights the recovery of domestic passenger and freight transport demand, with international passenger demand showing significant growth, although recovery in international aviation remains slow [3] Summary by Sections Market Performance - In the past five trading days, the transportation sector's performance was mixed, with the sector's index declining by 0.047%, ranking 14th among all sectors [13][15] - The best-performing sub-sectors included public transport (+6.42%), express delivery (+1.42%), and aviation (+0.19%), while railways (-1.31%), ports (-0.78%), and airports (-0.45%) lagged [15][18] Investment Recommendations - Focus on high-dividend state-owned enterprises in the transportation sector, particularly in sub-sectors such as highways (e.g., Shen高速, 吉林高速), railways (e.g., 大秦铁路, 广深铁路), ports (e.g., 上港集团), and supply chains (e.g., 厦门国贸, 厦门象屿) [4] - Given geopolitical tensions and slow long-term capacity growth, the report recommends attention to oil and container shipping companies like 中远海控, 中远海能, 招商轮船, 招商南油 [4] - The report suggests monitoring major airlines such as 中国国航, 南方航空, and airports like 上海机场, 首都机场, as domestic air transport demand is expected to recover steadily [4] - In the express delivery sector, companies like 顺丰控股, 中通快递, and 圆通速递 are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of a recovering business volume [4] Industry Fundamentals - The BDTI index for oil shipping was reported at 929 points, with VLCC rates at $26,080/day, Suezmax at $32,212/day, and Aframax at $35,475/day, indicating a decline in rates [22] - Domestic civil aviation saw a significant increase in passenger volume, with domestic flights carrying 58.29 million passengers in October, a year-on-year increase of 10.5% [52] - The express delivery sector reported a business volume of 17.21 billion packages in November, up 26.1% year-on-year, with revenues reaching 142.99 billion yuan, a 15.2% increase [70] - Rail freight turnover was 3,194.46 billion ton-kilometers in October, reflecting a 0.2% year-on-year increase, while road freight turnover was 6,848.51 billion ton-kilometers, up 3.9% [77][82]