Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the transportation industry, specifically focusing on the express delivery sector [1] Core Views - The express delivery industry is expected to see a 15% growth in parcel volume in 2025, driven by stable demand and improved demand quality [2] - Competition in the express delivery sector is expected to remain benign, with price reductions being higher in the first half of 2025 compared to 2024, but lower in the second half [2] - High-end express delivery services, such as those offered by SF Express and Deppon, are expected to perform better than the overall market due to the end of consumption downgrading trends and government stimulus policies [2] - Digital precision marketing is becoming a significant trend for express delivery companies, with a focus on improving terminal pricing and channel pricing efficiency [2] Industry Demand - The express delivery industry has experienced three phases of growth: 2013-2016 with a 50-60% growth rate, 2017-2019 with a 25-28% growth rate, and 2020 onwards with a 20% compound growth rate [14] - In 2024, the industry saw a 22.3% growth in parcel volume from January to October, significantly higher than the 8.3% growth in e-commerce retail sales [16] - The rise of reverse logistics, driven by higher return rates on platforms like Douyin and Kuaishou, has created new growth opportunities for the industry [27] Competition and Pricing - The express delivery industry is expected to see a marginal increase in competition in 2025, but it will remain within a benign range due to policy constraints and the pursuit of high-quality development by companies [86] - Historical price competition in the industry has gone through three phases: mild competition (2013-2019), intense price wars (2019-2021), and a stabilization phase (2021 onwards) [84] - The price reduction in 2025 is expected to be higher in the first half compared to 2024, but lower in the second half, with the overall intensity of competition remaining controllable [86] Digital Precision Marketing - The express delivery industry is shifting towards digital precision marketing, with a focus on improving terminal pricing and channel pricing efficiency [87] - Terminal pricing depends on the pricing power of mainstream products and the proportion of differentiated products (e.g., individual orders, direct customers, return parcels) [110] - Channel pricing efficiency is influenced by the accuracy, speed, and accessibility of price policies issued by headquarters to franchisees [113] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong digital marketing capabilities, such as ZTO Express, YTO Express, Yunda Holdings, and STO Express [2] - SF Express and Deppon are also recommended due to their potential for performance improvement and historically low valuation levels [2]
快递行业2025年年度策略：通达快递竞争与进化相伴，高端快递有望冬去春来
兴业证券·2024-12-17 02:46