航空板块2025年年度策略：把握25年周期强弹性配置机会

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" investment rating for the aviation sector, highlighting a strong cyclical rebound opportunity in 2025 [1]. Core Insights - The aviation industry is on the brink of a supply-demand reversal, with low supply levels and initial capacity bottlenecks emerging, suggesting a strong cyclical rebound opportunity in 2025 [1]. - Airlines are shifting strategies from price prioritization to a balance of volume and price, with expectations of increased passenger volume and seat occupancy, although ticket prices are under pressure [1][19]. - The report emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic recovery and declining oil prices, which are expected to support airline profitability [1][41]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Aircraft Introduction Under Pressure, Significant Supply-Demand Optimization Trends - The upstream capacity remains constrained, with airlines' aircraft introductions expected to be below forecasts due to supply chain impacts, leading to a projected capacity growth of only 1-2% [14][19]. - Airlines are returning to a strategy of balancing volume and price, with seasonal capacity bottlenecks becoming apparent, indicating a potential supply-demand imbalance in peak seasons [21][34]. - Business route prices are under pressure but have a support level due to rising high-speed rail prices, making further declines difficult [37]. Section 2: Macroeconomic Recovery and Declining Oil Prices, Sector Still Holds Upside Potential - Oil prices are expected to decline, providing significant support to airline profitability, with a 1% change in oil prices impacting major airlines' costs and profits significantly [42][53]. - The recovery in PMI indices in October and November suggests a positive outlook for business travel demand, which is closely tied to macroeconomic conditions [47][49]. Section 3: Investment Strategy: Seize Strong Cyclical Rebound Opportunities in 2025 - The report suggests focusing on airlines with significant elasticity in supply-demand reversal, recommending investments in China Southern Airlines, Air China, China Eastern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and Juneyao Airlines [54][56]. - Key companies are expected to show improved earnings per share (EPS) over the next few years, with specific forecasts provided for each airline [60].