Credit and Financing Trends - In November 2024, new RMB loans amounted to 580 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 510 billion, reflecting a significant contraction in credit growth[3] - The total social financing (TSF) for November was 23,357 billion, down 1,197 billion year-on-year, indicating continued weakness in financing[3] - The broad money supply (M2) grew by 7.1% year-on-year, a slowdown of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, while narrow money (M1) decreased by 3.7%[3] Factors Influencing Credit Dynamics - The decline in new loans is primarily attributed to debt replacement policies, leading to early repayment of existing loans by local government financing platforms[5] - A significant amount of non-performing loans was written off in November, further impacting the new loan figures[5] - Excluding these factors, the underlying demand for loans appears stronger, supported by recent monetary policy easing measures[5] Real Estate Market Impact - The real estate market showed signs of recovery in November, with a 19.8% year-on-year increase in the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities, marking the first positive growth since June of the previous year[9] - The increase in housing sales is expected to boost demand for residential loans, with long-term loans for residents increasing by 669 billion in November[9] Future Outlook - The central bank is expected to lower the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 0.25-0.5 percentage points, releasing between 500 billion to 1 trillion RMB to support credit expansion[4] - The shift in monetary policy from "prudent" to "moderately accommodative" signals a significant increase in counter-cyclical adjustments, which may enhance support for the real economy[4] - Despite the anticipated increase in credit supply, the scale of debt replacement is expected to continue influencing new credit and social financing data in December[4]
2024年11月金融数据点评：隐债置换扰动效应加大，楼市回暖在11月金融数据中得以体现
Dong Fang Jin Cheng·2024-12-17 03:09