保险Ⅱ行业深度报告：分红型产品占比提升，开门红有望延续景气度
KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2024-12-17 03:32

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The proportion of participating insurance products is increasing, and the "opening red" sales are expected to maintain a favorable trend in 2025 due to effective individual insurance channel transformation and strong mid-to-long-term demand for participating insurance [5][6] - Concerns regarding the reduction of preset interest rates and the cessation of overdrawn demand are expected to have limited impact on the growth of "opening red" sales, with new single growth likely to exceed market expectations [5][7] - The insurance industry is expected to see an improvement in valuation levels, driven by enhanced investment capabilities and operational stability of leading insurance companies [5] Supply Side Summary - The product strategy is shifting towards participating insurance, with a significant proportion of new products being launched in this category [19][21] - The "opening red" sales rhythm has been advanced, with a stable contribution from new single sales in Q1 2023, maintaining a high level of around 40% [15][18] - The agent channel is stabilizing and improving in quality, providing strong support for the sales of relatively complex participating insurance products [37] Demand Side Summary - The impact of product cessation on "opening red" sales is expected to be limited, with participating insurance products showing a yield advantage over traditional bank savings [7][23] - The consumer confidence index for personal insurance has improved, indicating strong demand for personal insurance products [7][14] - The mid-to-long-term demand for retirement savings is anticipated to remain robust, supported by the favorable performance of participating insurance products [7][14] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include New China Life Insurance, China Life Insurance, China Pacific Insurance, and Ping An Insurance, which are expected to benefit from the favorable trends in the insurance market [5]